000 AXNT20 KNHC 272358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters... A cold front is presently over the west Atlantic extending from 31N69W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. The front is forecast to extend from 31N68W to 22N80W tonight, with gale force winds developing ahead of the front mainly north of 28N and east of 63W with seas ranging between 10-14 ft. Gale force winds are also expected to develop west of the front mainly north of 29N with seas 10-14 ft. These conditions will continue through the 29/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N31W to South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ between 22W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W to 19N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm on either sides of the front. Surface ridge continues to build in the wake of the front anchored by a 1028 mb high centered over northeast Mexico near 27N100W. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico with a considerable amount of cold air advection. These winds will continue through Wednesday morning. Return flow will develop across the northwest Gulf on Wednesday and gradually spread across the entire Gulf by the end of the week. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N85W to 16N86W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the southwest Caribbean south of 12N between 80W-83W mostly due to the proximity of the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The remainder of the basin remains under fair weather mostly due to an upper-level high centered over Jamaica near 18N78W with strong subsidence. A weak surface pressure gradient across the basin is producing moderate to fresh winds across much of the basin, with fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades along the north coast of Colombia through the remainder of the week. The cold front over the Yucatan Peninsula will extend from eastern Cuba to Belize tonight, then begin weakening while moving east. The remnants of the front will lift north across the northwest Caribbean on Thursday night and Fri. Moderate to fresh trades and seas to 8 ft currently across the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Windwards will subside slightly through Wednesday night before winds become fresh to strong by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic. A cold front is over the west Atlantic extending from 31N69W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm south of the front. To the east, a 1016 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 25N60W. Another cold front is over the east Atlantic from 31N34W to 22N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Both cold fronts will continue moving east over the next 48 hours with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA