000 AXNT20 KNHC 261129 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Southeast of Bermuda... A 980 mb surface low near 35N52W has a warm front extending east from it to 29N29W. A cold front extends south from the low from 30N50W to 20N64W. Seas are expected to reach 15 ft in this area. Gale-force winds are forecast until 26/1200 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N88W to 21N97W. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region to W Bay of Campeche in the morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread south behind the cold front today, increasing to minimal gale force south of 25N west of 94W, and spread south across the far southwest waters near Veracruz today through evening. Seas will build to 12 ft in the southwest Gulf. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 06N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 16W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N88W to 21N97W near Tuxpan, Mexico with scattered moderate convection along the boundary. To the east, a warm front extends from 29N84W to 27N82W, then crosses the Florida Peninsula into the western Atlantic to a 1014 mb low pressure near 29N75W. Fresh to strong winds prevail across the northwest portion of the basin at this time behind the front and gentle to moderate to the east of the basin. Scattered showers are present 90 nm behind and along this boundary near 28N between 90W-95W. The frontal system over the eastern Gulf will lift northward tonight. The cold front over the northwest Gulf will continue moving southeast across the basin enhancing winds/seas. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold front, increasing briefly to minimal gale force S of 25N this morning, with gale conditions spreading S across the far SW waters offshore of Veracruz from mid morning through midnight tonight before gradually diminishing. High pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail through the remainder of the week. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf Wed night and gradually spread across the entire basin by Fri. See the section above for more information about this front and the Gale Warning currently in effect. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 29N48W to the Virgin Islands near 19N62W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection due to strong subsidence in the region. Moderate to fresh tradewinds and seas to 8 ft seas are expected across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the Caribbean through the period, with strong nocturnal trades forecast S of 13N along the N coast of Colombia. A cold front will move from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Tue evening and reach from central Cuba to N Belize Wed morning, before stalling from E Cuba to N Belize Wed night. The front will gradually weaken and drift N through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the west/central Atlantic. A 980 mb surface low near 35N52W has a warm front extending east from it to 29N29W. A cold front extends south from the low from 30N50W to 20N64W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N75W. A stationary front extends southwest from the low to 27N80W. To the east, a cold front over the west/central Atlantic extends from 29N51W to 22N64W. A 980 mb low near 35N52W has a warm front extending east from it to 29N29W. This warm front transitions to a stationary front from that point and then continues as a cold front near 29N27W. A trough ahead of the front is near 29N48W to 19N62W with scattered moderate convection along and ahead of the line between 30N-21N between is east of the cold front north of 21N between 45W-52W. A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the east of the central Bahamas near 23N72W. Weak high pressure prevail just E of the central Bahamas this morning and will shift NE through Tue, ahead of a cold front that will move off the SE coast of the United States this afternoon. This front will extend from near 31N71W to S Florida Tue afternoon, from 30N65W to E central Cuba Wed afternoon, then stall from near 23N65W to E Cuba Thu afternoon. This front will be accompanied by strong to near gale force winds N of 28N Tue night and Wed, with minimal gale force winds N of 29N E of the front Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ TORRES