000 AXNT20 KNHC 251737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region to W Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold front this evening, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N west of 94W tonight, and spread S across the far SW waters near Veracruz Mon morning through evening. Seas will build to 12 ft in the SW Gulf Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...GALE WARNING for Atlantic waters Southeast of Bermuda... A 996 mb surface low near 32N64W has a warm front extending east to 31N53W. A cold front extends S from the low to 31N63W to 27N70W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed gale force winds. Gale force SW winds are N of 30N between 61.5W and 63.5W. Seas are to 11 ft. Gale force winds are forecast until 26/1200 UTC. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W to South America near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 16W-24W. Similar convection is from 02N-07N between 24W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N83W to 26N86W. A warm front continues to SE Louisiana near 30N89W. A cold front and prefrontal trough is presently over central Texas moving towards the Gulf coast. Most of the Gulf presently has 15 kt southerly surface winds. Little to no significant shower activity is noted. Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the Gulf will lift northward today. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. See the section above for more information about this front and the Gale Warning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N62W to the Leeward Islands near 17N64W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. More scattered showers are over the Windward Islands from 10N-14N between 61W-66W. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is over E Panama and N Colombia, S of 10N and E of 79W. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection due to strong subsidence in the region. Seas to 8 ft seas are forecast across the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the N coast of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Otherwise moderate trades are expected N of 17N, while fresh trades are generally forecast S of 17N through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A 1013 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N78W. A cold front extends SW from the low to S Florida near 27N80W. A warm front extends E from the low to 29N75W. Scattered showers are N of 26N between 74W-79W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N63W to 28N66W to 27N69W. The ongoing Gale is associated with this front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the cold front N of 23N between 52W-59W. Another cold front dips into the E Atlantic near 31N30W to 28N43W to to 31N51W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N31W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough axis is along 60W, N of 25N. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing convection. Elsewhere, another upper level trough is centered over the Cape Verde Islands with upper level diffluence and scattered showers E of the Islands. Expect all three fronts to move E over the next 48 hours. A new cold front to move off the SE United States coast Mon evening. This cold front will move SE and extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wed morning, and weaken from 24N65W to eastern Cuba Thu morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa