000 AXNT20 KNHC 251142 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region to W Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold front this evening, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N west of 94W late tonight, and spread S across the far SW waters near Veracruz Mon morning through evening. Seas will build to 10 to 15 ft in the SW Gulf Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...GALE WARNING for Atlantic waters Southeast of Bermuda... A 1007 mb surface low near 30N68W has a warm front extending east to 29N64W to 28N61W, then stationary to 26N55W to 29N40W, then a cold front from 29N40W to 32N31W. Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is north of a line extending from 32N66W to 29N60W to 27N55W to 31N49W. South of that line, scattered moderate convection is north of 22N between 52W-61W. Winds to gale force are expected by late this morning or early afternoon N of 26N between 54W-62W along with high seas. Winds will gradually diminish tonight as the low and warm front shift farther NE out of the area. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N20W to 01N40W to 01S47W. Isolated to scattered areas of moderate convection are noted from 04N-09N between the W coast of Africa and 38W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted from 00N-09N between 05W-18W and from 12N-18N between the west coast of Africa and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is centered over northern Florida near 29N82W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 27N85W, then continues as a warm front from that point to 26.5N91W to 27.5N93.5W, dissipating to 29N95W. Little to no significant shower activity is observed at this time. Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the Gulf will lift northward today. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. See the section above for more information about this front and the Gale Warning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from near 21N62W in the Atlantic to 18N64W to 13N66W over the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen from 16N-18N between 65W-67W. In the far SW Caribbean, isolated showers are south of 10N between 75W-78W due to the monsoon trough, located well to the south of the area. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection due to strong subsidence in the region. Fresh to locally strong trades will prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands this morning then become moderate to fresh throughout the rest of the period. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the NW coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night, then returning Wed night and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front enters the area near 32N76W, extends SW to a 1010 mb low centered over N Florida near 29N82W, and continues into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are noted offshore of Georgia and N Florida. A surface trough extends from 27N65W to 21N69W. Isolated showers are possible near and just east of the trough axis. Another surface trough extends from near 21N62W to 18N64W to 13N66W over the E Caribbean. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N32W. Weak high pres will develop across the Bahamas today then slide ENE and exit the area early Tue. This will enable a new cold front to move off the SE United States coast Mon evening. This cold front will move SE and extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wed morning, and weaken from 24N65W to eastern Cuba Thu morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen