000 AXNT20 KNHC 250541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Mon, then move S of the area on Tue night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold front Sun night, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N west of 95W late Sun night, and spreading across the far SW waters near Veracruz early Mon through Mon evening. Seas will reach 8 to 11 ft across the area on Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 21W-33W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted from 01N-08N between 05W-14W and from 14N-20N between the west coast of Africa and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low is centered along the coast near the Big Bend of Florida near 30N83W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 26N85W to 25N88W, then stationary to 25N91W, then as a warm front to 28N95W to 28N97W. A surface trough is analyzed from 22N96W to 19N95W. Little to no significant shower activity is observed at this time. Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the Gulf will stall early this morning before lifting northward later today. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche early Monday. See the section above for more information about this front and the Gale Warning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from near 21N61W in the Atlantic to 17N63W to 13N64W over the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen along and just west of the trough, from 15N-18N between 63W-67W. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection due to strong subsidence in the region. Fresh to locally strong trades are forecast across the tropical waters E of the Windward Islands through this morning. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the NW coast of Colombia through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate trades are expected N of 17N, while fresh trades are forecast S of 17N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W to 32N79W to Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Isolated light showers are just offshore northern Florida and Georgia. A 1007 mb low is over the west Atlantic near 30N74W. A recent ASCAT pass from around 0200 UTC Sunday and recent satellite imagery suggest there is a second low present near 29N69W as of 0200 UTC. The ASCAT pass shows winds of 25 to 30 kt extending to 120 nm S and SE of this second low. The pass also shows winds of 25 to 30 kt in the NE quadrant of the second low from 120 to 270 nm from the center, or from 30N-32N between 64.5W-67.5W. According to the 0000 UTC surface analysis, a warm front extends from the first low eastward to 29N66W to 27N62W. A stationary front continues from 27N62W to 26N55W to 26N48W. A cold front is from 26N48W to 28N43W to beyond 32N34W. Numerous moderate convection is seen from 27N northward, between 56W-68W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 300 nm of the front east of 60W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 26N32W. The low and front over the western Atlantic will shift N of the forecast area later this morning. Gales are likely today just N of the forecast area, N of 31N and E of 63W. Marine conditions will gradually improve today in the forecast area. High pres will build over the area this afternoon before shifting E Mon. This will enable a new cold front to move off the SE United States coast on Mon evening. Fresh to locally strong SW flow will set up along the NE Florida coast by early Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This cold front will extend from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late Tue night, and weaken from 28N55W to the SE Bahamas late Thu night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen