000 AXNT20 KNHC 232349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends WSW from 32N50W to 27N61W, then continues as a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. A weakening frontal boundary curves WSW from 31N60W to 28N66W. These features support a large area of cloudiness as well as scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 50W-72W. A scatterometer pass from this afternoon depicted gale-force winds north of 27N between 72W-77W. These conditions are expected to continue through this evening. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of the monsoon trough over Africa is located near the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida to N of the western tip of Cuba near 24N84W. To the northwest, a 1011 mb surface low is centered near 28N96W, with a cold front extending from the low to 24N96W and a warm front from the low to 24N90W. Patchy rain is observed over the northern Gulf waters mainly north of 27N. The low will begin heading E in response to a mid to upper-level trough moving E from Oklahoma and Texas. The low will drag the attendant frontal boundaries E with it to beyond the NE Gulf during the weekend. A stronger cold front will move SE off the Texas coast on Sunday afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday morning, then stall across the far SE waters on Tuesday. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast across the far W central waters, and along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface trough extends from the Atlantic basin across the Windward Passage. This feature has isolated showers associated with it. Otherwise, broad upper-level ridging is maintaining relatively dry conditions over the basin as the convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough over Panama and Costa Rica is being inhibited by the subsident environment. Atlantic surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 28N30W ridges to north of Puerto Rico near 22N67W. The high will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the region through Sunday. New high pressure building to the N of the basin will reintroduce strong nocturnal trade winds along the NW coast of Colombia on Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details relating to the evolution of the features associated with the gale-force winds currently occurring to the E of Florida. A surface trough extends NE from the Windward Passage to near 25N66W. All the significant convection associated with this trough is confined to the vicinity of the stationary front that extends ENE from the Bahamas. To the east, a surface trough is noted from 12N55W to 18N54W with isolated showers associated with it. Elsewhere, broad high pressure centered WSW of the Canary Islands near 28N31W extends across the area and will prevail through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA