000 AXNT20 KNHC 221705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 PM EST Thu Nov 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends WSW from 32N56W to the Straits of Florida. The front will stall W of 70W by Fri morning as low pres develops along the front near 27N78W in response to a strong impulse at mid to upper levels approaching from the W. Expect gale force winds to spread over the waters N of 28.5N and W of 75W by Fri morning as the pressure gradient N of the front tightens. Sea heights will range between 10 feet and 15 feet in the area affected by gales. The gale force winds will wind down by Saturday morning as the low lifts out to the NE. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains almost completely confined to Africa but a small portion of the trough pokes offshore from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W to 04N27W to 04N39W. The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to the coast of South America near 02N53W. A surface trough splits the ITCZ from 00N42W to 10N37W. A broad upper-level trough extending S from 14N53W to 06N54W is interacting with the ITCZ and surface trough to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within an area bounded by a line from 06N18W to 01S39W to 03W43W to 05N33W to 10N37W to 08N18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front enters the Gulf through the Florida Straits, then becomes stationary near 24N86W. The front continues through 1017 mb low pres SE of Brownsville near 25.5N96W to end over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. A mid to upper-level trough extends S over the Gulf from Louisiana to the SE Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present in the vicinity of the front W of 90W. Otherwise, cloudiness and patchy rain are found over the Gulf W of 90W, while cloudiness and isolated showers are seen over the remainder of the Gulf. The low pressure center along the frontal boundary will generate fresh to strong winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast today. The winds and the seas will subside tonight as the low pressure center dissipates. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sunday night. It is possible that the second cold front may induce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad mid to upper-level ridging is maintaining benign weather over the basin with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers generally prevailing. The monsoon trough extends ENE from the eastern Pacific over Panama through 1010 mb low pres over Colombia near 10N76W to end near 09N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present over the SW Caribbean S of 12N and W of 79W. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean will diminish in the area E of the Lesser Antilles today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on the gale warning associated with low pressure developing E of Florida on Fri and Sat. A cold front reaches SW from 32N58W to the Florida Straits. A second cold front extends SW from 32N66W to near Cape Canaveral Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 120 nm SE of the southernmost front N of 28N. Otherwise, cloudiness and isolated showers are observed along and up to 60 nm ahead of the southernmost front. This area of cloudiness and isolated showers spreads northward from this front over all of the waters S of 32N. A surface trough extends NE from the SW tip of Haiti to 28N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are taking place within 60 nm of the trough axis N of Haiti. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy