000 AXNT20 KNHC 211742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING is in effect Friday and Friday night for the offshore waters from 27N-31N, west of 77W. On Friday, strengthening low pressure along a frontal system north of the NW Bahamas and east of N Florida is forecast to cause winds to gale force and high seas in the area. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of W Africa near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N22W to 05N26W to 02N33W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-10N between 07W-16W, and from 02S-10N between 24W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front that passes through Orlando Florida extends into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa near 28N83W to 25N94W to 23N95W to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to the south of the Big Bend of Texas. A surface trough extends from 24.5N95.5W to 27N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the area from 27N southward from 89W westward. A cold front that passes through Miami Florida and Cape Sable Florida near 25N81W extends to 24.5N84W. Isolated showers are observed just offshore the east coast of South Florida and in the Florida Straits from 23N-27N between 79W-81W. Low pressure developing along the front Thu will generate strong winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. Winds and seas will subside on Fri as the low and front gradually dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 65W westward. An upper level trough extends from NE Venezuela and Guyana beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A 700 mb inverted trough is along 80W from 18N southward to Panama. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 09N to 24N between 55W and 68W, covering parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W in Colombia and 84W in W Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 79W-85W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.49 in St. Thomas. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia through Thu. Trade winds are expected to subside on Fri. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean to the east coast of Florida near 29N81W where it becomes stationary and continues west-southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Some cloud cover is present with the front, but little to no shower activity is noted. A second cold front passes through 32N62W to 28N75W to Miami Florida to Cape Sable Florida and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from 31N63W to 24N74W. Scattered showers are mainly from 25N northward and from 73W eastward. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N between 55W-61W. Isolated showers are observed just offshore the east coast of South Florida and in the Florida Straits from 23N-27N between 79W-81W. A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to the western part of the Canary Islands near 28.5N18W, to a 1016 mb low near 25N30W, to 22N40W to 23N42W, dissipating to 29N44W. Scattered showers are mostly north of 25N and east of 29W. These showers are mostly located SE of a line extending from 39N10W to 32N20W to 27N28W. A surface trough is located from 21N26W to 16N30W. Cloud cover is present near the trough with no significant convection noted. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for Freeport Bahamas was 0.75 inches, ending at 21/1200 UTC. The frontal boundary extending from S Florida to the northern Bahamas to 31N66W will reach the central Bahamas later today, then stall Thu through Fri night. Low pressure will form along the front near the northern Bahamas on Fri, then intensify as it tracks NE off the SE coast of the United States Fri night through Sat night. Seas outside the Bahamas will build to between 10 and 16 ft Fri through Sat night. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale at the end of the forecast period in IRVING. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen