000
AXNT20 KNHC 202314
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 
05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 05N20W to 
03N30W to 04N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 01N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 31W-35W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 
30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to the NW 
Gulf near 25N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-25 kt N winds are W of 
the front. A prefrontal trough extends from central Florida to the
SE Gulf near 25N86W. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted 
over the Gulf. 

Expect the front over the eastern gulf to continue to shift 
southward the next couple of days while the western portion 
becomes stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW 
Gulf near 26N95W to near the Bay of Campeche by Thu Night, and 
dissipate by Fri. A second cold front will shift across the 
northern waters late Fri through the weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea. An area 
of scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands near 14N70W. The SW 
Caribbean has scattered showers S of 11N to include CostaRica and 
Panama. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair weather. In
the upper levels a large upper level high is centered over the 
central Caribbean near 13N78W, that dominates the entire 
Caribbean. 

Expect fresh to strong winds to continue along the coast of 
Colombia through Thu. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles 
through Wed afternoon. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to
central Florida near 28N80W. A prefrontal trough extends from
31N67W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front and trough. A 1021 high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 27N48W. A cold front dips into the E
Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N29W to 25N37W. A stationary front
continues to 31N45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front E of 30W. 

Expect over the W Atlantic for a cold front to move from the Gulf
of Mexico to the W Atlantic Wed through Fri night, then become 
stationary Sat. High pres will build in the wake of the front. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa