000 AXNT20 KNHC 200547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W, to the Equator along 22W, to 03N29W and 04N33W, continuing to 04N47W, and to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. A surface trough is along 33W/36W, from 10N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward from 42W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow spans the entire area. A cold front passes through southern Mississippi, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 28N94W. A cold front continues from the low pressure center, to 23N96W, and to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A stationary front continues inland, to north central Mexico, near 30N105W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between 86W and 94W, between the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters of Texas. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 83W/84W from 26N to the coast of NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either side of the trough. The part of the current cold front that is to the N of the 1016 mb low pressure center will continue to move E, and extend from Tampa Bay to 25N92W on Wednesday morning. The remainder of the front will stall in the adjacent waters of Mexico, with the tail reaching the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong north winds are forecast west of the front all the way to the Bay of Campeche starting tonight, and continuing through Wednesday morning. The stationary front then will drift northwestward to the NW Gulf of Mexico, where its remnants will transition to a surface low pressure center early on Thursday. The low pressure center will move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A middle level inverted trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, just off the coast of the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to Panama. The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama, beyond 84W at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong rainshowers are along the coast of Colombia from 77W eastward, along the coast of Panama between 78W and 79W. Isolated moderate to strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward from 80W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.72 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao. Strong surface high pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and the gulf of Venezuela through Tue morning. Winds will diminish briefly, as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again on Tuesday night, and continue through Thursday morning as a new ridge builds north of the area. Mixed NE and E swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern waters the remaining of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N22W, curving to 30N30W and 27N40W. A stationary front continues from 27N40W, to to a 1020 mb low pressure center that is near 32N46W. The stationary front continues to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 32N56W. The stationary front continues to 30N67W, and to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 28N72W. The stationary front is dissipating from 28N72W to 22N77W at the coast of SE Cuba. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that runs from 21N75W to 23N68W to 26N57W to 28N42W to 28N20W, beyond 30N10W at the coast of Morocco. A developing cold front is along the eastern coast of the U.S.A., passing through 32N77W, to 29N80W, across Florida, to 27N83W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just off the western coast of Florida. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs from 24N80W beyond 32N69W. An upper level trough is digging through Morocco and Algeria, through Mauritania, to 08N21W in the Atlantic Ocean. One surface trough is inland in Africa, from Algeria to Mali to southern Mauritania. A second surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 23W/24W from 16N to 22N. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 22N between 20W and 28W. The remainder the current 32N67W-to-22N77W front is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. The low pressure center will meander, and then merge with a cold front, that will reach from near 31N67W to 25N73W on Tuesday evening and from near 29N65W to 27N69W on Wednesday evening. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and building seas to the N and NE of the Bahamas from Thursday night through Friday evening. These winds will veer to E-SE from Friday evening into Saturday morning, ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW waters on Saturday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the northern waters through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT