000 AXNT20 KNHC 192332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01N22W to 05N32W, then resumes west of a surface trough at 05N37W and continues to 02N50W. The surface trough stretches from 10N32W to 02N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 11N between 10N-20W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Similar convection is also seen where the trough meets the ITCZ. A plume of mid to upper clouds extends NE just ahead of an upper-level trough that crosses the Lesser Antilles near 15N61W, and continues SW to near the ABC Islands. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to a weak 1016 mb low pressure centered near 27N96W. A cold front extends from that low southward to near Tampico, Mexico, then continues NW, as stationary front, over Mexico. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated tstms are noted in association with the fronts/low. The cold front will become stationary this evening. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight and merge with the stationary front early on Tue as it then extends from the near Panama City to weak low pressure of 1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz, Mexico. Then, the cold will reach from near Cross City, in N Florida to near 26N90W and to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are forecast in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. The western portion of the front will stall and then drift northwestward over the far western Gulf through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the front will become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu. Weak high pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from 27N84W to 22N85W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough axis. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, with winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also noted across the waters just E of the Lesser Antilles. Strong high pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge builds north of the area. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. A surface trough previously located over the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated but isolated showers and tstms are still affecting the NW Caribbean mainly S of 20N W of 83W. Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean in association with the monsoon trough. This convective activity is affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are observed across the remainder of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends along 31N-32N between 30W-60W. This front enters the forecast region near 31N60W and extends to a 1016 mb low pressure located near 27N70W, then continues SW to the coast of eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers are near the low center. The front will remain nearly stationary through Tue. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the waters NE Florida on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition to a cold front moving eastward. Strong high pressure over the NE of United States will bring fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-9 ft across the waters N of 27N W of 65W late Thu into Fri. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure situated near 28N50W. A frontal trough is N of the Cabo Verde Islands and stretches from the coast of Mauritania near 19N66W to 18N35W. Some low level clouds are associated with this trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR