000 AXNT20 KNHC 191733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03N25W to 04N33W. The ITCZ resumes west of a surface trough near 05N37W and continues to 04N43W. A surface trough curves from 09N31W 08N34W to 05N35W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from the Equator to 12N between 05W-21W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 02N-10N between 21W-45W. An upper level trough is pulling mid and high level clouds northeastward, well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm of a line from 11N59W to 14N55W to 20N49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front over southern Louisiana passes midway between Lafayette and Lake Charles, enters the Gulf near 30N93W, and continues to a 1016 mb low near 27N96W. A cold front extends from that low southward to 24.5N97W and westward into northern Mexico near 24N98W to 25N100W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues farther inland. Broken to overcast clouds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the Gulf of Mexico to the NW of a line extending from 23N98W to 26N89W to 30.5N86.5W. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N84W to 25N84.5W to western Cuba near 22N83W. Isolated showers are possible over the SE Gulf of Mexico near the trough axis extending to near the lower Florida Keys and offshore the SW coast of Florida. The cold front that extends SW from the low near 27N96W will become stationary this evening. A cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight and merge with the stationary front early Tue as it then extends from near Panama City to weak low pressure of 1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz. The cold front will reach from near Cross City, Florida to near 26N90W to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong north winds are forecast west of this front across the W central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night, then in the far southwestern Gulf through early Wed afternoon. The western portion of the front will stall and then drift northwestward over the far western Gulf through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the front will become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore Texas Thu and track eastward across the northern Gulf through Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 20N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W, just to the east of Belize and to the north of western Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 20N southward from 85W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N between 75W in Colombia and beyond 83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over Panama and the waters of the extreme SW Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-84W. A small area of upper-level divergence in between Jamaica and Hispaniola is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18N-19N between 75W-78W. The surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight, including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough passes through 32N79W off the coast of South Carolina, to 29N80W to 27N80W off the coast of Palm Beach County Florida. Scattered showers are seen just off the E coast of Florida from 26.5N-29N between 79W-80.5W. A 1019 mb surface low is near 32N59W. A stationary front extends from the low SW to a 1016 mb low near 27N70W. The stationary front continues from there to 22N76W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm of a line from 32N53W to 30N59W. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the front. Farther east, a cold front over the NE Atlantic enters the area near 32N31W and extends SW to a 1018 mb low near 31N32W. A cold front extends westward from the low to 30N37W to 31N43W, where it becomes a stationary front, which continues to 32N47W to 33N53W to the 1019 mb surface low mentioned in the previous paragraph. Broken low clouds are seen and scattered showers are possible within 120 nm south of the frontal boundary and extending north of boundary to the north of the forecast area. A NE-SW cold front over north Africa moves through Mauritania near 20N16W, dissipating to 19N20W. A surface trough is from 19N20W to 19N28W to 17N35W to 16N46W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are possible within 90 nm of the trough axis. Large long period NE swell from over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed afternoon. The stationary front over the western Atlantic will dissipate tonight. The 1016 mb low near 27N70W will meander over the region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from near 31N69W to 28N77W Tue evening and from near 28N65W to 25N77W Wed evening. A strong cold front will move southward over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Thu through Fri night. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas over these waters Thu night through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen