000 AXNT20 KNHC 182357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N37W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 220 nm north and 180 nm south of the boundary between the west coast of Africa to 30W. Between 30W-50W, scattered showers are along and in the vicinity of the boundary with scattered to broken cloud cover associated with the convection. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to the coast of Mexico from 26N97W to 20N97W. Scattered showers are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of 90W. This includes areas within 90 nm along the coast of Texas. A 1016 mb surface low is centered near 24N83W. A surface trough passes from 27N85W to the low and into the NW Caribbean near 20N82W. Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, then reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE, reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 24N83W extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 82W-84W. Another surface trough extends from 17N83W to southern Belize. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 17N-20N between 82W-87W. The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 75W-82W, and over Colombia and Panama. Convergence along this trough will continue to support scattered showers and tstms through Mon night. Strong high pressure building N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through early Tue as the center of high pressure shifts eastward across the NW Atlc waters. Large swell over the Atlantic Ocean will continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area near 30N63W and continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N65W. The stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low near 27N70W, and continues to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line from 28N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 28N-32N between 57W-66W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere along the front. A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country of Western Sahara near 21N17W to 20N20W and transitions to a dissipating front from that point to 20N24W. A surface trough continues from that point westward to 19N43W. Scattered moderate convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and this activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara. Long period NW swell in excess of 15 ft are affecting the entire NE Atlantic north of 18N and east of 35W, including the Madeira and Canary Islands. Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic due to a 1023 mb surface high near 27N46W. Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly within 120 nm NW of the stationary front through early this evening. The front will remain nearly stationary through Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the north waters Tue and merge with the stationary front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres