000 AXNT20 KNHC 181723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 05N22W to 05N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is within 180 nm south and 270 nm north of the boundaries between the west coast of Africa and 32W. Between 32W-52W, scattered moderate to locally strong convection extends from near the ITCZ to 180 nm north of the ITCZ. Broken cloud cover and scattered showers cover the area from 10N-17N between 50W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to the coast of Mexico from 25N97W to 22N97W to 18N95W. Scattered rainshowers are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of 93W. This includes areas within 90 nm of the coast of Texas between Freeport and Brownsville. A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 23N83W. A surface trough passes from 29N86W to 26N84W to the low and into the NW Caribbean near 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Florida Straits and western Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, then reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE, reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 23N83W extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 81W-84W. Another surface trough extends from 18N83W to southern Belize. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N-19N between 84W-88W. The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 76W-82W, and over Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the northwest Caribbean, especially along the surface trough located just north of Honduras. Strong high pressure building N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through early Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area near 32N58W and continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N66W. The stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low near 26N70W, and continues to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line extending from 23N73W to 25N65W to 28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 28N-32N between 57W-66W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere along the front. A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country of Western Sahara near 23N16W to 22N19W to 21N25W. A surface trough continues from that point westward to 20N36W. Scattered moderate convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and this activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara. Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic due to a 1022 mb surface high near 27N55W and a 1023 mb surface high near 28N44W. Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly within 120 nm NW of the stationary front over the western Atlantic through today before diminishing. The front will remain nearly stationary through Tue. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the north waters off the SE coast of the United States on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition to a cold front moving eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen