000 AXNT20 KNHC 181159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N33W, and to 04N51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N98W along the coast of Mexico, to 21N96W, to 18N95W at the northern edge of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. Moderate to fresh SE wind flow will set up across the western Gulf of Mexico today, ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to reach the coast of Texas tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Monday night. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early on Tuesday, merging with the stationary front, then reaching from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico on Tuesday night. The western part will stall Tuesday night, and then drift northwest through midweek. The eastern part will continue SE, reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost point of a cold front reaches 23N74W in the SE Bahamas. A surface trough, the remnants of an already-dissipated front, is along 18N83W 17N86W, into southern Belize. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 19N southward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W/76W in Colombia and 83W/84W in the southern parts of Costa Rica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW corner of the area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 05N to 08N from 83W eastward. A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front, is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 18N83W into southern Belize. Convergence along this trough will continue to support scattered rainshowers, as well as fresh to strong winds through this morning. Strong surface high pressure, building N of the area, is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through early Tuesday, as the center of high pressure shifts eastward across the NW Atlantic Ocean waters. Large swell in the Atlantic Ocean waters will persist through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front starts near 32N57W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N66W. The stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 26N70W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 23N74W in the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of 26N66W 25N69W 24N70W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 300 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N51W to 28N60W to 24N63W, and then within 90 nm to the NW of the line that runs from 24N63W to 22N72W. A second cold front passes through 32N08W in Morocco, to 25N15W, 21N23W, and to 21N30W. A surface trough continues from 21N30W to 21N36W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before dissipating on Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly within 180 nm NW of the stationary front through today, before diminishing. The southern part of the front will become stationary later today. The entire front S of 31N then will meander in the region through Monday night. A strong area of low pressure, and an upper level trough moving off the NE United States, will help to transition this front to a cold front by midweek. Upper level diffluent wind flow is supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT