000 AXNT20 KNHC 180601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N32W, 04N38W, and to 04N50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N97W along the coast of Mexico, to 18N95W at the northern edge of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 26N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, through most of the period, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. Moderate to locally fresh SE wind flow will set up across the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to reach the coast of Texas on Sunday night. The front will move slowly across the NW Gulf of Mexico through Monday night, reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by early on Tuesday morning, and then move toward the coast of Texas from Tuesday night into Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 26N70W, to SE Cuba and 20N78W. A surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. A surface trough, the remnants of an already-dissipated front, is along 18N83W 17N86W, to the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N southward to Honduras between 83W and Mexico and Belize. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 76W in Colombia and 83W along the southern coast of Panama. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW corner of the area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from 82W westward. A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front, is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 17N83W to the southern coast of Belize near 16N88W. This elongated area of low pressure continues to support scattered rainshowers with thunder, as well as fresh to strong winds. The trough is forecast to prevail in this region through Sun morning. Strong high pressure building N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through early Tue as the center of high pressure shift eastward across the NW Atlc waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N58W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 26N70W. A dissipating stationary front continues from the low pressure center, to SE Cuba and 20N78W. A surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 240 nm to 300 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N55W to 25N67W, and then within 120 nm to the NW of the line that runs from 25N67W to 21N75W. A second cold front passes through 32N along 09W/10W, near the coast of Morocco, to 30N10W, 26N15W, and curving to 22N28W. The cold front is dissipating from 22N28W to 22N36W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before dissipating on Sunday night. Upper level diffluent wind flow is supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT