000 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and well south of the monsoon trough from 00N-09N between 06W-21W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N-11N between 22W-37W. A band of scattered moderate convection has developed south of the ITCZ from 02N-03N between 36W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 11N-20N between 15W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge of high pressure extends over the northeastern and central Gulf of Mexico from a 1025 mb surface high over NW Georgia. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are over portions of the central Gulf from 23N-28N between 84W-91W. Brownsville Texas Doppler radar indicates an area of isolated showers just off the coast of northern Mexico from 24N-26N west of 96W. In the upper levels, high clouds are noted over southeast Texas and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the eastern and southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected to continue across most of the Gulf this weekend, with high pressure over the southeastern United States. A cold front is forecast to reach the coast of Texas Sun night, then move slowly across the NW Gulf through Mon night, and move back toward the coast of Texas by Tue night into Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the central Bahamas to Camaguey Cuba to the Cayman Islands to 17N86W. A surface trough is just off the coast of Honduras from 16N87W to 16.5N85W to 16N84W. 20 kt N-NE winds cover the NW Caribbean N of the front, south of 21N and west of 82W. A recent ASCAT pass shows winds of 25 kt south of the front to the coast of Honduras near the location of the trough. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of a line from 19N82W to 16.5N87W. In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers extend out to 90 nm from the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama from 08N-15N between 80W-84W. The southern portion of this is influenced by the East Pacific monsoon trough, and the rest appears to be diurnal in nature. East of 79W, the Caribbean is relatively quiet, with the exception of scattered showers from 15N-18N between 62W-66W. Expect the surface front in the NW Caribbean to retreat back slightly to the NW while gradually dissipating by Sun. Trade winds will increase along with building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean today through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas of up to 10 ft are expected near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area over the W Atlantic from 32N64.5W to 28N70W to 23N75W, where it becomes stationary. The stationary front continues to Camaguey Cuba and into the NW Caribbean Sea. A 1012 mb surface low is centered just SE of the front near 25.5N72W at 1500 UTC, and a surface trough extends south-southwestward from the low to 21N74W. The latest ASCAT data shows winds of 25-30 kt on the south and east side of the low extending out to about 120 nm. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends outward to 120 nm NE of the surface low and 90 nm SE of the low. This convection is located from 24.5N-27.5N between 69.5W-72W. Northeast of this convection, scattered moderate convection associated with the front extends about 60 nm NW of the front and 120 nm SE of the front north of 27N east of 71W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N44W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N14W to 28N16W to 25N25W to 24N32W, dissipating to 24N40W. Scattered showers are from 22N-31N, east of 26W, including over portions of Morocco and Western Sahara Expect the W Atlantic front to become stationary from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas to E Cuba tonight. The surface low is expected to merge with the front tonight. The front will then gradually dissipate through Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen