000 AXNT20 KNHC 170000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N south between 09W-15W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered showers north of the ITCZ extends from 19N south between the coast of Africa near Mauritania to 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... In the upper levels, a strong jetstream branch originating from the eastern Pacific extends northeastward across the SE Gulf, to the Yucatan Peninsula and to across south Florida. At the surface, a 1025 mb high pressure dominates the weather regime in the wake of the recent cold front passage. Cold air advection with the northerly flow around the high center located over the northern Gulf near 27N90W is resulting in broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds across just about the entire sections of the eastern and middle Gulf. Broken to overcast low clouds associated with a surface trough are confined to the southwestern Gulf. Scattered showers are possible with these clouds. Clear skies are present generally to the north of 27N, and from 23N to 26N west of 92W. A surface trough is present from 28N95W to 27N97W along the Gulf coast of Texas. No significant precipitation is noted at this time with the trough. Isolated showers are over some parts of the Straits of Florida. A rather tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over the area and the recently departed cold front, now over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, is bringing mainly fresh northerly winds over the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds in anticyclonic fashion around the 1025 mb high are elsewhere across the Gulf. Little change is expected in the present synoptic pattern through Sat, then the high pressure will begin to shift eastward on Sun in response to the next cold front that will be moving across Texas. This front is forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 20N78W to near the Cayman Islands, where it becomes stationary to the coast of northeastern Honduras as of 21Z. Satellite imagery shows mainly broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers along and to the northeast of the front. Along the stationary front near 20N79W to 15N84W scattered moderate convection is noted 180 nm behind the front which are being supported by a upper- level disturbance riding along a strong jet stream branch that extends northeastward from the eastern Pacific to across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strong northerly winds are forecast to diminish to fresh winds on Sat as the pressure gradient over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean slackens. A surface trough, the remnants of a former tropical wave, extends from northwest Colombia to just southwest of Jamaica. Isolated showers are seen over Jamaica. Patches of low-level moisture containing isolated showers are moving westward over the remainder of the Caribbean to the east of the cold front. The stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night. High pressure over the central Atlantic will build southward through Sun bringing an increase to the trades across the eastern and central Caribbean that is expected to last into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front, that is well defined in satellite imagery, is over the western Atlantic along a position from 29N70W to 21N77W in south central Cuba as of 21Z. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm east of the front north of 30N. The front is forecast to become stationary from near 32N66W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and slowly weaken through Mon. A surface trough extends from near 25N73W to low pressure of 1012 mb near 24N74W and to just north of eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm northeast and east of the low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere along and near the trough. A cold front stalls from south-central Cuba to 18N81W to NE Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through Sat morning when it is forecast to transition to a surface trough that will move to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist behind the front through tonight. Strong and broad high pressure building north of the area behind the front will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and along the coast of Venezuela beginning tonight and continuing through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ TORRES