000
AXNT20 KNHC 160542
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to N Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is is along the monsoon
trough from 03N-08N between 16W-22W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 26W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 16/0300 UTC, a cold front has just exited the Gulf of 
Mexico and is over the W Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. A 1025 mb
high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N93W. Broken 
to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds remain over the 
southern Gulf S of 26N. The N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 15-20 
kt N winds are noted over S Florida where the surface pressure 
gradient remains strong. 

In the upper levels, a strong jetstream remains from the Bay of
Campeche to N Florida. 

Expect high pressure moving E along the northern Gulf in the wake
of the front to prevail over the Gulf waters through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 16/0300 UTC, the tail end of a cold front extends from W
Cuba at 23N80W to NE Honduras at 15N84W. 20-25 kt N winds are
noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection is N of Honduras 
from 16N-18N between 84W-86W. Scattered showers are elsewhere 
within 60 nm of the front. 

A surface trough, the remnants of a tropical wave extends from
Jamaica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over N
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 09N-12N between 68W-75W. 

In the SW Caribbean, isolated moderate convection is noted south 
of 13N between 79W-84W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern 
Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
Hispaniola near 19N71W enhancing showers. 

Expect the cold front to slowly move southeast, eventually 
stalling from Eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras on Sat. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 16/0300 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
32N76W to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm E of the front N of 28N. 20kt NW winds are W of
front. 

A surface trough is over the S Bahamas and E Cuba from 25N74W to
20N75W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-24N between
72W-75W. 

A cold front has dipped into the central Atlantic waters from
32N42W to 29N50W to 31N63W. A 1024 mb high is also centered near
26N48W. Another cold front has traversed the Canary Islands and
extends from 32N10W to 28N13W to 25N20W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of Morocco.  

Expect the W Atlantic cold front to move E and extend from 32N67W
to the S Bahamas near 23N75W Fri night with showers and
convection. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa