000 AXNT20 KNHC 152359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 17N southward. Scattered moderate convection is present 12N southward between 76W to 79W. Precipitation near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua are associated to the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough to the south. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 11N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 06N-03N between 17W-22W, and from 08N-05N between 34W-42W. Elsewhere, scattered showers extend north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15/21Z a 1008 mb low pressure centered over the coast of N Carolina is near 35N76W. The cold front extending south of the low has moved into the Western Caribbean sea as of 21Z. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over 28N96W has moved into the Gulf of Mexico with a north to northwest fresh to strong winds over the north and western portion of the Gulf. Scattered showers are present near the northwest Gulf coast. Overcast multilayered clouds are over most of the the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Strong winds and high seas continue over the SE half of the Gulf behind a cold front extending from the Florida Keys to western Cuba. Winds and seas will gradually decrease behind the exiting front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front will prevail across the Gulf waters through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas near 23N73W to south of Hispaniola to the north central Caribbean near 16N73W. Scattered convection is present over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the S Bahamas and Eastern Cuba. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. A cold front extends S from W Cuba near 22N82W to NE Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. 20-25 kt N winds are noted W of front. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted south of 13N between 78W-83W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The front will slowly move southeast, eventually stalling from Eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Sat. E swell will maintain seas 8 ft or above for tropical N Atlantic through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21Z, a cold front extend from a 1008 mb low pressure center over the coast of N Carolina near 35N76W. A cold front extends south from 34N77W to the coast of S Florida near 25N80W to Western Cuba, into the NW Caribbean sea. Scattered showers are within the proximity of the boundary out to 90nm. High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE today ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late tonight into Fri. Meanwhile, a trough extending N from the Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas is stalling and will lose identity ahead of the cold front Fri and Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres