000 AXNT20 KNHC 151753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 18N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers surround the wave. The tropical wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, which by itself is helping to spread rainshowers in the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Precipitation with the monsoon trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 04N22W to 04N30W, and to 05N37W and 05N40W. Another branch of the ITCZ is along 07N53W 08N58W 10N60W and 11N62W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 22W and 46W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation are from 03N to 08N from 14W eastward to Africa. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 46W and 55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 09N between 56W and 59W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between 59W and 64W in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. This precipitation is reaching parts of NE Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, and the other nearby islands of the SE Caribbean Sea. Other rainshowers are possible also from 15N southward between 60W and 67W, in the SE Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.93 in Trinidad, GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N79W, to Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, toward Key West, and beyond NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible to the east of the line from the Florida Big Bend near 30N85W to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Surface high pressure has developed across the entire area that is to the west of the cold front. A 1028 mb high pressure center is in SW Louisiana. A 1031 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near 24N99W. The ridge extends from Louisiana, to the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. STORM- FORCE winds are being observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico near 16N95W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.63 in Merida in Mexico. Strong to near gale force winds, and high seas, continue behind a cold front that is extending from SW Florida to NW Cuba. The wind speeds and the sea heights will decrease gradually behind the exiting front. Building surface high pressure, in the wake of the front, will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico waters through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 13N to 26N between 66W and 83W. A surface trough cuts across Hispaniola along 71W, from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 21N in the Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the waters and islands from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 77W. A cold front passes across NW Cuba, to 20N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the west of 83W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.93 in Trinidad, 0.28 in Guadeloupe, 0.21 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.16 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.09 in Bermuda, and 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W in Colombia and 81W/82W on the southern side of Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward between 75W and 85W in SE Nicaragua, and from 05N to Costa Rica and Panama from 85W eastward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Fresh to strong northerly winds are observed to the west of a cold front that is reaching from western Cuba to central Honduras. The front will move southeastward slowly, eventually stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Saturday. E swell will maintain sea heights at 8 feet or higher for the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N79W, to Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, toward Key West, and beyond NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible to the east of the line that passes through the Florida Big Bend near 30N85W to 25N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N57W to 31N63W to 32N68W, to the south of Bermuda. A warm front continues from 32N68W to 33N74W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N79W off the coast of South Carolina. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 30N northward from 50W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in Bermuda, An upper level trough passes through 32N14W, across the Canary Islands, to 25N17W, to a cyclonic circulation center that is near 18N29W, and to 15N34W. A shear axis continues to 16N48W and 18N53W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 360 nm to the north of the shear axis. A cold front passes through 32N13W to the Canary Islands near 28N17W, to 27N20W, and to 26N30W. A dissipating cold front is along 26N30W 26N38W. Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between Africa and 40W. Surface high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean will shift ESE today, ahead of a cold front that is moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late tonight into Friday. A surface trough that crosses Hispaniola will move into the SE Bahamas today and stall, before losing identity ahead of the cold front for Friday and Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT