000 AXNT20 KNHC 142345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico from Cedar Key Florida to 27N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N88W, remaining inland over southern Mexico to 17.5N92.5W. Expect gale force NW to N winds up to 40 kt, and seas ranging from 12 to 26 feet, S of 24N and W of the cold front through this evening. The highest sea heights are forecast to be near 19N94W. Winds are forecast to weaken to below gale force late tonight or early Thursday morning. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 15N southward, to NW Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the area from 10N-15N between 67W-73W, including over NW Venezuela. However, this activity may be more influenced by the upper-level flow regime, with upper-level cyclonic flow over the northeastern and north-central Caribbean, and upper-level anticyclonic flow over northern South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern Guinea and northern Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N between the coast of Africa and 28W, and from 03N-09N between 29W-41W. A surface trough is from 06N39W to 01N41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and gale force winds are located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features Section above for more details. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and just ahead of the front from 25N-29N between 83W-86W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms cover much of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with scattered showers and thunderstorms also over Florida. Overcast multilayered clouds with scattered showers cover the Gulf of Mexico from the cold front westward, except for an area of clear skies within 60 nm of the coasts of Texas and northern Mexico. The current cold front will move SE of the Gulf around midday Thursday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing behind the exiting front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 24N67W to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic to 16N69W. Scattered moderate convection is located near and over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the Caribbean north of 17N between 64W-73W. Comparatively drier air covers the area from 15N northward and from 75W westward to 85W. In the far southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough is creating scattered moderate convection mainly south of 13N and west of 73W to Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. High pressure in the NW Atlantic is supporting fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. The trough in the NE Caribbean, described above, will move W across Hispaniola tonight. In the NW Caribbean, strong N winds and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel this evening. Fresh N winds and seas to 10 ft will spread across the NW Caribbean behind the front Thu and Thu night, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. Expect increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwest Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night, with heavy rainfall possible over portions of northern Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Daytona Beach Florida to Cedar Key Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Broken multilayered clouds and scattered showers cover the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of a line that passes through Bermuda to Daytona Beach Florida. The surface trough that extends from 24N67W to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic is producing scattered moderate convection south of 25N between 64W-72W. In the tropical Atlantic, scattered moderate convection extends to 210 nm offshore the coast of South America from the Brazil/French Guiana border to NE Venezuela, extending almost to the Windward Islands and Trinidad. An upper level trough axis passes through 32N20W to 25N26W to 19N31W to 21N46W to 24N57W. A cold front passes through 32N23W to 31N26W. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm of a line that passes through 32N22W to 28N26W to 23N32W, and this line is moving quickly southeastward. A 1025 mb high near 33N42W is leading to relatively quiet weather over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The aforementioned cold front that currently extends from 32N71W to Daytona Beach will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba from late Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, a trough over the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic extending NNE into the adjacent Atlc will move W across Hispaniola tonight, and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. As the trough reaches the Bahamas along 75W early Fri it will recurve N to the E of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then move N of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen