000 AXNT20 KNHC 141754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, along 26.5N82W TO 21N89W. Expect GALE-FORCE NW-to-N winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 26 feet, S of 24N W of the cold front. The highest sea heights are forecast to be near 19N94W. The wind speeds are forecast to weaken to less than GALE-FORCE late tonight Tuesday/ early in the morning on Wednesday. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 15N southward, to NW Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 17N between 67W and 70W. It is not easy to find precipitation that is related only to the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 07N28W, and to 06N39W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 12N between 16W and 28W, and from 04N to 10N between 45W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 16W eastward, and from 03N to 09N between 30W and 40W. A surface trough is along 06N44W 04N44W 02N43W 01N42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Florida east coast near 28N80W, to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and ending in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. GALE-FORCE wind speeds are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico, mostly to the west and northwest of the line that runs from 26N82W along the western coast of Florida to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between the line and 90W. STORM- FORCE winds are being observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. The current cold front will move SE of the Gulf midday on Thursday. The wind speeds and the sea heights gradually will be decreasing behind the exiting front. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 30N southward between 60W and 78W. A surface trough is along 24N66W 20N67W 16N68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 17N between 67W and 70W, and from 17N to 24N between 60W and 72W in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air covers the area that is from 15N northward between 73W and 86W/87W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 82W in Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward between 76W and the coast from Nicaragua southward. Surface high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean is supporting fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough, that is to the west of Puerto Rico and extending NNE into the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will move W across Hispaniola through today. E swell will cover the tropical north Atlantic Ocean through mid week. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front that will be entering the Yucatan Channel this evening. Fresh northerly winds, and sea heights to 10 feet, will spread across the northwestern Caribbean Sea into Friday behind the front. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish from Friday into Saturday, as the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Florida east coast near 28N80W, to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the line that passes through Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the cloudiness. An upper level trough passes through 34N22W to 30N24W to 26N27W. A cold front passes through 33N25W to 32N27W. A surface trough continues from 32N27W to 29N36W 29N44W and 30N49W. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N18W to 27N30W to 27N50W. Surface high pressure, that is in the NW Atlantic, will shift ESE ahead of a cold front that is moving off the northeast Florida coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba from late Thursday night into Friday. A surface trough, that is to the west of Puerto Rico and extending NNE into the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will move W across Hispaniola today, and then through the southern Bahamas by late Thursday. The surface trough will recurve northward, to the east of the central Bahamas, ahead of a cold front, as it trough reaches the Bahamas along 75W early on Friday. The surface trough will move north of the area on Saturday, as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT