000 AXNT20 KNHC 140556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front is currently moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. As of 14/0300 UTC, the front extends from N Florida at 31N81W to 23N88W to the eastern Bay of Campeche at 19N92W. Gale force winds are occurring west of the front S of 26N. Storm force winds are occurring elsewhere offshore of Veracruz W of 94.5W and S of 21N. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale on 15/0600 UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 65W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of W Africa near 13N17W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 15W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 19W-27W, from 04N-07N between 38W-44W, and from 06N-12N between 48W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front extends across the basin, with gale and storm force winds prevailing over portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more details on the gale force winds. Scattered moderate convection is N of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-23N between 88W-89W. Overcast multilayered clouds are W of the front mostly due to a strong upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the Leeward and Virgin Islands from 22N63W to 16N67W. Scattered moderate convection from 15N-23N between 59W-63W. An upper-level low is centered over the Mona Passage near 18N68W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection over the Leeward Islands. This system continues to have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward. In the southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also inland over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds over most of the Caribbean Sea. The trough across the Virgin Islands extending NE into the adjacent Atlantic will move across Puerto Rico through late tonight, and then across Hispaniola Wed. The tropical wave over the southeast Caribbean will move westward reaching Hispaniola and the ABC Islands by late Wednesday and early Thursday. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel late Wed. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity with periods of heavy rain for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and the adjacent waters of the northwest Caribbean through early Fri. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N between 75W-77W. A 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 36N52W. The tail-end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N30W to 26N37W. scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N13W. High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile a trough across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlc will move westward across Puerto Rico tonight, across Hispaniola Wed, and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. As the trough reaches the Bahamas along 75W early Fri it will recurve northward to the east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then move north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa