000 AXNT20 KNHC 131130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front is moving eastward over the Gulf of Mexico. At 0900 UTC, the front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 22N94W to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Gale force winds are W of front. The gale will spread across the western and central Gulf, reaching storm force off Veracruz this morning. The front will reach from near Tampa Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Winds and seas will gradually subside through late week as the front sweeps southeast of the area by late Thu. Gentle to moderate northerly flow will cover the Gulf Fri, with high pressure building across the northwest Gulf Sat. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W/60W from 14N-03N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-62W. A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 21N60W to 13N63W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands is from 15N-18N between 58W-62W. Isolated moderate convection is over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from 17N-20N between 63W- 67W. The potential for this trough to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone continues to decrease. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 04N35W to South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ axis E of 43W. Scattered moderate is also from 07N-14N between 43W-52W, mostly due to upper level diffluence. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the W Gulf. See the Special Feature section above. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida from 24N-25N between 81W-83W. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Wave section for details on the surface trough over the Leeward Islands. An upper-level low is located over the Virgin Islands near 18N63W. This upper-level low could also be helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms in the area. In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N between 76W-82W, to include portions of Panama, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds over most of the region. A trough over the Leeward Islands will move through Puerto Rico through late today, and to the north of Hispaniola through Wed. E swell will cover the tropical north Atlantic through mid week. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel late Wed. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail-end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N55W to 27N62W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N27W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over N Brazil near 01N55W. Upper level diffluence NE of the center is producing convection in the tropics. Fresh to strong southeast winds north of 28N will diminish through today as high pressure over the western Atlc shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile a trough along and north of the Leeward Islands will move westward through Puerto Rico today, north of Hispaniola Wed, and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. Low pressure may form along the trough as it reaches the Bahamas then recurve northward Fri to the east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa