000 AXNT20 KNHC 121747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon and reach the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Atlantic's disturbance... A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near the Leeward Islands northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and an upper-level trough. A diffluent flow aloft prevails to the east of the upper-level trough with axis along 56W, enhancing this convection, located from 15N-22N between 51W-59W. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so, therefore, this system has a medium chance. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 10N southward. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N-10N between 48W-53W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W south of 19N. Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the wave affecting the Leeward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa 08N13W to 07N17W, then transitions to ITCZ at that point to 05N41W. Scattered to isolated strong convection is noted 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb surface low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 29N96W, with warm front extending from the low to 29N91W to 30N87W. A dissipating stationary front extends across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 26N between 91W-95W and north of 29N and east of 90W. The warm front will continue weakening as it lifts N and inland today. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon and reach from the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is entering the east Caribbean with scattered showers. Refer to the section above for details. To the south, scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 77W-82 due to the monsoon trough. Increasing thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and building seas accompany a tropical wave along 61W as it moves across the tropical north Atlantic waters and toward the Lesser Antilles. Low pressure may develop along the northern portion of the tropical wave through Tue as it continues westward across or near the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic. Elsewhere, high pressure N of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward Passage, over adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic and along the coast of Colombia through Tue. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 10 ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from 31N66W to 26N80W. Scattered showers are possible along the front. A surface trough is from 22N55W to 17N56W. This feature is the reflection at the surface of an upper-level trough that prevails in the area. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N35W. The front over the west Atlantic will drift N of the area late today through early Tue. The next cold front will move off the southeast US coast by late Wed, reaching from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA