000 AXNT20 KNHC 121121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon and reach the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W/44W from 10N southward. Scattered moderate convection is present 150 nm on either side of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is relocated along 61W south of 19N. The latest upper air analysis from Barbados and Guadeloupe support the wave has already moved across their area. Scattered showers are noted 90 nm west of the wave axis from 19N between 61W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa 08N13W to 07N17W, then transitions to ITCZ at that point to 05N41W. Scattered to isolated strong convection is noted 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 09Z, a stationary front extends from Naples, Florida near 26N82W and transitions into a warm front from 25N84W to a 1012 mb Low 29N96W and stationary front is dissipating over the northwest Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection near the northern Gulf coast from 29N between 86W to 90W. The warm front will weaken as it lifts N and inland this morning. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf late this afternoon and reach from the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is present along 70W from 19N southward. Upper level NW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough. No significant precipitation is observed in the proximity of the trough. The monsoon trough is along 07N76W in Colombia, westward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are seen from 12N southward between 80W-84W. Increasing thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and building seas accompany a tropical wave along 57W as it moves across the tropical north Atlc waters and toward the Lesser Antilles. Low pres may develop along the northern portion of the tropical wave through Tue as it continues westward across or near the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlc. Elsewhere, high pres N of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward Passage, over adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic and along the coast of Colombia through Tue. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 10 ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes from 30N68W to the NW Bahamas, passing across Grand Bahama Island, and beyond South Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are possible to the north of the line. An upper level trough is near 30N64W to 26N69W. No significant convection is noted with the trough at this time. An upper level trough passes through 24N54W to 19N58W, to the 20N63W upper level cyclonic circulation center, and eventually across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the trough axis from 17N between 52W to 58W. The front will drift N of the area late today through early Tue. A cold front will move off late Wed, reaching from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. A trough will approach the waters NE of the Leeward Islands late today with increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds and building seas. Low pres may develop along the trough, eventually turning N along 70W through the remainder of the week as the next cold front approaches. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres