000 AXNT20 KNHC 112352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon. The wind speeds are forecast to reach GALE-FORCE at the 30-hour time for the 11/1800 UTC forecast, meaning GALE-FORCE winds starting around sunset on Monday. The cold front is forecast to be along 30N90W 26N95.5W 25N98W at the 30-hour forecast time. The GALE-FORCE NW-to-N wind speeds will be W of 94W and W of the cold front. The sea heights will be building to 8 feet. STORM-FORCE winds are forecast 12 hours later, around sunrise on Tuesday morning. The 42-hour forecast position of the cold front is 30N90W 26N91W 22N94W 18N95W. Expect the NW STORM-FORCE winds S OF 21N W OF 95W, with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet. Expect continued STORM-FORCE wind speeds by the early afternoon on Tuesday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 10N southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W/44W from 10N southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N southward. 16N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 16N50W to 18N53W to 18N57W. Disorganized widely scattered scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 50W and 60W. A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, in Central America, from 17N in Guatemala southward. Rainshowers are possible in broken low level clouds that are moving westward across Guatemala. No precipitation is associated with the tropical wave directly. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, curving to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 07N29W, to 06N33W, 06N42W 06N45W, and to 04N54W in French Guiana. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 37W and 42W, and from 07N to 09N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes across Grand Bahama Island, across South Florida along 26N, to 25N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes warm, and it continues to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 26N96.5W, off the coast of the Deep South of Texas. A stationary front extends southeastward, from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The stationary front curves through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and then it curves northwestward 28N101W in north central Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N northward. A few rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 21N to 25N. The current frontal boundary will weaken and move northward through tonight. A second and stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico late on Monday afternoon into the evening, and it will reach from the W Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche on Tuesday morning. The wind speeds will increase to gale force, quickly, behind the front late on Monday and Monday night, with possible storm force winds offshore of Veracruz. The front then will reach from Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula early on Wednesday, moving SE of the Gulf of Mexico early on Thursday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish gradually by the end of the week as the front exits the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N64W cyclonic circulation center, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to 10N66W in northern Venezuela. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 12N to 18N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 13N between 59W and 61W, from Grenada to Saint Vincent including Barbados. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere between 60W and 70W from 20N in the Atlantic Ocean southward. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 12N61W, in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, between Trinidad, Grenada, and Barbados. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.16 in Guadeloupe, 0.30 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.28 in Bermuda, 0.25 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.17 in Veracruz in Mexico, and 0.03 in Curacao. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 12N southward between 80W and 86W, in an area of broad surface low pressure and middle level to upper level directional wind shear. Increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and building sea heights will accompany a tropical wave as it moves across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean waters and the lesser Antilles this evening and tonight. It is possible that a surface low pressure center may develop along the northern part of the tropical wave from Monday through Tuesday, as it continues westward across the E Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Surface high pressure to the N of the Caribbean Sea will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward Passage, the adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea from Wednesday night through Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N62W to 27N63W, to the 21N64W upper level cyclonic circulation center, and eventually across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 33N63W 30N64W 26N65W 21N67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward between 58W and 64W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. A cold front passes through 32N66W to 31N69W. A stationary front continues from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas, passing across Grand Bahama Island, and beyond South Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that runs from 26N80W to 28N70W beyond 32N62W. The current frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary overnight, and then it will drift N of the area from Monday through early Tuesday. Another cold front will enter the NW part of the area late on Wednesday night, reaching from 31N72W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thursday night. A tropical wave will approach from the SE on Tuesday, with increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and building sea heights. It is possible that a surface low pressure center may develop along the northern part of the tropical wave, eventually turning N along 70W through the remainder of the week as the next cold front approaches. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT