000 AXNT20 KNHC 111721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale... A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon. Winds up to gale force will follow this front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Monday. This feature will likely bring strong gales over the southwest Gulf by Tuesday, possibly reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the front reaches from near Tampa, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish on Wednesday as the front sweeps southeast of the region. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W and south of 09N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the wave, enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W south of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is present 120 nm on either side of the wave axis. This activity is enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and south of 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 13N between 51W and 57W. A tropical wave extends its axis along Central America and the EPAC along 88W. No convection is observed with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 09N20W, then transitions to ITCZ from that point to 04N28W. The ITCZ resumes near 04N31W to 05N40W, then from 05N43W to 03N51W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection within 150 nm north and 90 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 26N82W to a 1012 mb surface low near 24N96W. The front continues south from the low to 19N94W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data north of the front. The front will lift north and weaken today ahead of a stronger cold front moving off the Texas coast by late Mon. Strong winds and building seas will follow this new front, reaching gale force over the NW Gulf by late Mon. Strong gales will follow the front over the western Gulf as it reaches from Panama City Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico early Tue, with brief storm conditions possible off Veracruz. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Wed into Thu as the front sweeps southeast of the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient prevails across the basin enhancing fresh to strong winds pulsing through the Windward Passage. This pattern will persist through tonight, with areas of fresh strong winds also pulsing off the central coast of Colombia, near Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola, and through the Gulf of Guacanayabo in southeast Cuba. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with scattered moderate convection. Refer to the section above for more details. This wave is expected reach the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by tonight, then drift through the eastern Caribbean by mid week. As the tropical wave shifts west, a cold front will move into the southwest Atlantic area to the north, weakening the subtropical ridge and allowing winds across the basin to diminish through mid week. The cold front will also be moving across the Gulf of Mexico, and bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted north of a cold front extending from 31N69W to 26N80W. Seas to 8 ft in northerly swell are also apparent, at least over waters north of 30N. Subsidence associated with a sharp upper-level trough is maintaining generally fair weather from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos, but upper divergence on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting showers and thunderstorms across the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands. Buoy and altimeter satellite data show 4 to 6 ft seas over open waters. Expect for the front to stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas today. The front will lift north and becoming diffuse on Mon ahead of a stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Tue. The second front will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba Wed, when a reinforcing push of cold air will bring strong northerly winds and building seas to the waters north of 27N. As this happens, troughing on the northern end of a tropical wave will move into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Mon and Tue, coming into phase with favorable conditions aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough, thus enhancing convection, lowering surface pressure and allowing surface winds to increase. The resultant developing low pressure will move N-NW, reaching north of Puerto Rico Wed, before interacting with the stalling front Thu well to the northeast of the southern Bahamas. Strong to near-gale force winds are possible with this low, and it currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development by mid week. Farther east, 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 35N38W, supporting mostly fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Various recent altimeter passes indicate 8 to 11 ft swell across most of the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA