000 AXNT20 KNHC 110010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 708 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 100 nm on either side of the wave axis with scattered disorganized convection N and S of the ITCZ near the wave. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 11N southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N southward. Scattered moderate to strong convection are present from 12N to 15N between 46W and 49W and from 03N to 10N between 40W to 48W east of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola, into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection are from 14N southward from 79W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 08N13W 07N24W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N27W to 07N36W. Disorganized scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 10N to 01N between 26W and 38W. Scattered showers are elsewhere south of the ITCZ from 07N-03N between 09W to 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near Tampa, to 27N82W in the south central part of the Gulf of Mexico, to 18N93W along the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and then curving NW inland in Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 180 nm behind the front from 90W-95W. A surface ridge has developed from the Rio Grande Valley of Texas along 100W, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 20N96W. Gale-force winds have diminish as of 00 UTC. The front will then lift northward through early Mon ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move into the northwest Gulf by Mon early afternoon. Winds to gale force will follow this stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales are likely over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish Wed as the front sweeps southeast of the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to 15N71W near the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 20N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area that is to the SE of the line that runs from 20N63W to 15N70W, and from 20N southward from 60W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia, westward, beyond Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W in Colombia westward. A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 17N southward from 70W westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds across the region will prevail through tonight. The wind speeds will increase to moderate to fresh across the western and central Caribbean Sea on Sunday morning, as a surface ridge builds north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Windward Passage, in the adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast of Colombia on Sunday night. The surface ridge is forecast to shift eastward toward the north-central Atlantic Ocean through Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the cold front, from 26N to 32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N71W to 27N80W at the coast of Florida. An upper level trough passes through 32N63W to 23N65W, beyond the Mona Passage, into to the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 60W and 67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 58W and 67W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high is near 33N45W. The 32N78W-to-Tampa Florida cold front will become diffuse in the Bahamas through Monday. A strong surface pressure gradient, that will be between the cold front and a strong ridge that builds behind across the eastern CONUS, will support fresh to strong winds moving into the NW waters this evening. A second cold front will move off northeast Florida on Tuesday evening, and it will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Wednesday. It is possible that a surface trough or an area of low pressure may form to the north of the Virgin Islands early on Wednesday, and move to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Wednesday night. Fresh to near gale force winds are possible mainly in the northern semicircle of this low pressure center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMT/MT