000 AXNT20 KNHC 101741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, from 28N82W to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 18N95W. Expect N to NE GALE- FORCE winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, to the NW of the line that runs from 28N91W to 26N94W to 22N96W. Elsewhere to the W of the cold front: N to NE winds 20 to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet. The wind speeds are forecast to slow down enough in order to be less than gale-force early in the afternoon today. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 43W and 48W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 34W and 41W. A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola, into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 09N12W 07N17W 07N24W and 07N36W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 22W and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 22W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W along the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and then curving NW inland in Mexico near 29N107W. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the cold front, from 26N to 32N. A surface ridge has developed from the Rio Grande Valley of Texas along 100W, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N97W. Gale-force winds will be lingering for a few more hours, to the NW of the cold front. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force winds. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from 27N82W to 23N90W curving to 19N92W, and from 26N southward from 87W eastward. Winds to gale force are ongoing in the NW Gulf, with the current cold front. The current cold front will move southward, and then stall by late today from Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to Puerto Veracruz Mexico. The front is forecast to weaken as it moves northward through Sunday. This front will be ahead of a second cold front that is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by Monday. Wind speeds to gale-force will follow the second front in the western Gulf of Mexico as it reaches from Pensacola Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Monday. Strong gale-force winds are likely in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, possibly reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish on Wednesday as the front sweeps to the southeast of the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to 15N71W near the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 20N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area that is to the SE of the line that runs from 20N63W to 15N70W, and from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.19 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia, westward, beyond Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W in Colombia westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 17N southward from 70W westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds across the region will prevail through tonight. The wind speeds will increase to moderate to fresh across the western and central Caribbean Sea on Sunday morning, as a surface ridge builds north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Windward Passage, in the adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast of Colombia on Sunday night. The surface ridge is forecast to shift eastward toward the north-central Atlantic Ocean through Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the cold front, from 26N to 32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N71W to 27N80W at the coast of Florida. An upper level trough passes through 32N63W to 23N65W, beyond the Mona Passage, into to the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 60W and 67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 58W and 67W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high is near 33N45W. The 32N78W-to-Tampa Florida cold front will become diffuse in the Bahamas through Monday. A strong surface pressure gradient, that will be between the cold front and a strong ridge that builds behind across the eastern CONUS, will support fresh to strong winds moving into the NW waters this evening. A second cold front will move off northeast Florida on Tuesday evening, and it will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Wednesday. It is possible that a surface trough or an area of low pressure may form to the north of the Virgin Islands early on Wednesday, and move to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Wednesday night. Fresh to near gale force winds are possible mainly in the northern semicircle of this low pressure center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt