000 AXNT20 KNHC 091206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 706 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale... The forecast, starting at 24 hours into the future, starting friday night/saturday morning, and ending on saturday afternoon, at the 36 hour time, consists of a cold front from 29N83W to 24N96W to 21N97W. N of 26N W of 92.5W NE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 12N southward. ITCZ-related rainshowers are nearby. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 14N southward. ITCZ-related rainshowers are nearby. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward, between 78W and 85W, moving into Nicaragua. It is possible that these rainshowers also are related to trade wind flow. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 21N southward. Rainshowers are possible from 20N southward between 92W and 96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N24W 05N29W 04N36W 08N45W and 08N58W. xtends from W Africa near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near 09N49W to 08N58W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 08N-14N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N between 50W- 53W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper level diffluence. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas along 28N. Scattered showers are present along the NE Gulf and the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under gentle to moderate southeast to south flow with mostly fair weather. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf this morning, followed by strong winds and frequent gusts to gale force over the northwest Gulf tonight into Sat. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to La Pesca in northeast Mexico this evening, before stalling from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico late Sat. The front will weaken as it lifts northward through Sun, ahead of another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Mon. Winds to gale force will follow this stronger front as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong to near-storm force gales are possible off Veracruz by late Tue as the front reaches from near Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along 66W from 11N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 16N between 60W-65W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the trough. In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from the Windward Passage to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean allowing for drier and more stable air mass to filter in from the west. Weak ridging north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the region through today. Winds will start to increase slightly east of the Leeward Islands as the ridge builds east. Winds and seas increase slightly across the region early next week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 30N W of 70W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 22N71W to 31N68W. Scattered showers are seen 200 nm east of the trough axis N of 27N. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N34W. An upper-level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N65W enhancing the upper level diffluence to the southeast. Scattered moderate convection is present E of the low from 20N-27N between 55W-61W. A surface trough extending north of Hispaniola along 72W will maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through Sat. A weak cold front will move off northeast Florida late today then become diffuse over the Bahamas by Sun. Another cold front will move off northeast Florida by early next week followed by fresh northerly winds and seas to 9 ft in northerly swell N of 27N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT