000 AXNT20 KNHC 090601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale... The stationary front currently extending across the northern Gulf coastline, will transition into a cold front and move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. The front will extend from 28N83W to 24N96W to 21N97W by Sat. This feature will enhance fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in the wake of the front, with frequent gusts to gale force. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 01N-11N, moving W at around 10-15 kts. This tropical wave is noticeable in model diagnostics at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery with abundant moisture content in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N-09N between 23W-26W of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 04N48W to 14N46W, moving W at 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is noticeable with this high amplitude wave. SSMI TPC imagery shows a moisture area associated with this wave. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-13N between 43W-49W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm east of the wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 08N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noticeable in the vicinity of the wave. A Bay of Campeche tropical wave is along 95W from 09N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near 09N49W to 08N58W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 08N-14N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N between 50W-53W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper level diffluence. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas along 28N. Scattered showers are present along the NE Gulf and the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under gentle to moderate southeast to south flow with mostly fair weather. The stationary front currently extending across the northern Gulf coastline will transition into a cold front and move into the northwest Gulf waters today, followed by strong winds and frequent gusts to gale force tonight into Sat. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to La Pesca in northeast Mexico this evening, before stalling from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico late Sat. The front will weaken as it lifts northward through Sun, ahead of another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf. Winds to gale force will follow this stronger front as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong to near storm force gales are possible off Veracruz by late Tue as the front reaches from near Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along 66W from 11N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 16N between 60W-65W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the trough. In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from the Windward Passage to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean allowing for drier and more stable air mass to filter in from the west. The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 71W will persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally gentle to moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly east of the Leeward Islands as the ridge builds east. Winds and seas increase slightly across the region early next week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 30N W of 70W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 22N71W to 31N68W. Scattered showers are seen 200 nm east of the trough axis N of 27N. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N34W. An upper-level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N65W enhancing the upper level diffluence to the southeast. Scattered moderate convection is present E of the low from 20N-27N between 55W-61W. A surface trough extending north of Hispaniola along 72W will maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through Sat. A weak cold front will move off northeast Florida by late Fri then become diffuse over the Bahamas by Sun. Another cold front will move off northeast Florida by early next week followed by fresh northerly winds and seas to 9 ft in northerly swell N of 27N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres