000 AXNT20 KNHC 081206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 706 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale... A cold front will extend over the Gulf of Mexico from 29N90W to 30N88W by Friday evening. This feature will enhance winds reaching gale-force in the wake of the front, affecting the northwest Gulf waters. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 12N19W to 04N20W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is noticeable in model diagnostics at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery. Abundant moisture is also in its environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N47W to 05N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 20N-09N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over N Colombi9a and NW Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 20N-08N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave, especially over Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N30W to 08N47W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N50W to 09N60W. Besides the showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 06N-13N between 33W-42W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper level diffluence. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas along 30N. Scattered moderate convection is along the northern Gulf coast N of 29N between 84W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under gentle to moderate south to southeast flow with mostly benign weather. High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the coast of Texas Fri morning, and move across the NW Gulf through Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front, with frequent gusts to gale force. The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by Fri night, and from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early Sat morning, become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, before lifting north and dissipating Sun. Looking ahead, a second stronger front will move off the Texas coast late Mon, possibly followed by strong gales over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along 64W from 10N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands from 18N-21N between 62W- 65W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the trough. In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean W of the axis. The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 67W will persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally light to moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly starting Sat over the tropical north Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, and by Sun across the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola, as the trough weakens and high pressure builds north of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N W of 75W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N66W to 22N68W. Scattered showers are seen 200 nm east of the trough axis N of 26N. A large 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N39W. An upper-level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N64W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the low from 22N-27N between 57W-64W. A trough extending north of Hispaniola along roughly 67W will maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through mid week. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri night then stall from near Bermuda to central Florida by late Sat. The front will lift northward early next week ahead of another front approaching the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa