000 AXNT20 KNHC 071200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from the Mona Passage southward,moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N to 18N between the Windward Passage and Central America in broad trade wind flow. A surface trough is along 57W from 09N to 17N. Widely scattered rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 50W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near 09N44W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 31W-34W, and from 10N-13N between 47W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Georgia, to the Florida Panhandle, to SW Alabama, to southern Louisiana, to north central Texas. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N between 83W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. An Atlantic Ocean-to-central Gulf of Mexico surface ridge will support gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Friday morning, and then become stationary from Fort Myers to near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Saturday evening. Strong winds and building seas are expected behind this front. It is possible that NW to N winds may reach minimal gale force, from late Friday night through Saturday night, in the far western Gulf of Mexico S of 26N. It is likely that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Central America eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 74W. Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern Colombia, through eastern Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N southward from 74W westward. Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it shifts SE during the next few days. Generally light to moderate trade winds are expected for the next several days. A surface trough, currently just E of the Windward Islands, will produce rainshowers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds, across much of the NE Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters will be replaced by a new set of NE swell from Friday night through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from South Carolina to Georgia. Upper level SW wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through Bermuda, to 27N70W, to Cuba near 21N76W. An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Central America eastward. A surface trough is along 59W/60W from 20N to 27N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N to 27N between 57W and 62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. A Bermuda-to-central Florida surface ridge will retreat eastward, in response to cold fronts that will move off the U.S.A. eastern seaboard, one front on Wednesday and a second front on Saturday. The second cold front is expected to move across the NW section of the area on Saturday and Saturday night, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the remainder of the forecast waters through Sunday night. NE long period swell in the eastern waters will subside through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa