000 AXNT20 KNHC 061205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38/39W from 15N southward moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 37W and 45W. Scattered showers are also from 11N-14N between 34W-37W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 18N southward moving west around 10 kt. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. It appears that most if not all the rainshowers that are from 15N to 19N between 61W and 72W are related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 19N southward moving west around 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the wave axis from 12N-17N. A surface trough is along 52W from 07N to 17N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 08N-12N between 45W-50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N27W to 06N37W. Numerous moderate/scattered strong convection is located within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-34W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is between the African coast and 23W extending to 210 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front that extends from central Mississippi to central Louisiana to east-central Texas at 09 UTC has showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, some strong. These scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring this morning along the northern Gulf Coast between Vermilion Bay Louisiana and Panama City Florida. This activity extends into the northern Gulf of Mexico and is mainly occurring north of 28N between 86W-94W. Broad upper level W to SW wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is inland over Guatemala and southern Mexico. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere north of 25N and east of 95W. A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, across the Florida Peninsula and to the eastern and south-central Gulf of Mexico. The cold front mentioned in the paragraph above will become stationary today just north of the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms with isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through the day today, mainly north of 27N, between the southeast Louisiana coast and the waters south of Tallahassee Florida. High pressure extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will support mainly gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Thu. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf coast late Thu night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W and to the Mexican coast near 23N98W by early Fri evening, and from a position from near Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W and to the SW Gulf Sat. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this front. The northerly winds are expected to reach minimal gale force late Fri night through Sat night over the far western Gulf S of 26N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in Guadeloupe. An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 78W eastward. The surface ridge that extends from Bermuda to Florida to the south-central Gulf, also influences the weather int he northwest Caribbean, where the weather is relatively quiet. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern Colombia, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated showers are mainly south of 10N between 75W-83W. High pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts eastward during the next few days. As a result, trades will be be mainly in the moderate range as the gradient slackens. A mid to upper-level trough extending from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean, in combination with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean, will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds, over much of the northeastern Caribbean through Thu. NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W cyclonic circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 74W. A surface trough is along 58W from 20N to 28N. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 23N-27N between 50W-60W. A frontal boundary is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from North Carolina to South Carolina to Georgia. Upper level SW wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through 32N69W to 28N72W to 25N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N and west to 70W. A surface ridge influences the weather to the south and east of that area. High pressure over the area will weaken as it retreats eastward through Sat in response to a strong cold front that will be approaching the eastern seaboard. This cold front is expected to move across the northwest section of the area Sat and Sat night, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the forecast waters through period. NE long period swell over the eastern waters will subside through tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Hagen