000 AXNT20 KNHC 060538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 15N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 14N between 36W and 43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. It appears that most if not all the rainshowers that are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 70W are related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 19N southward moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N southward between 70W and 77W. A surface trough is along 50W/51W from 07N to 17N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 06N27W to 06N37W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is inland, in the area of the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula/the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec/northern Guatemala. Rainshowers are possible to the north of 24N. A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will support mainly gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf coast late on Thursday night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf, to near 26N93W and to the Mexican coast near 23N98W by early on Friday evening, and from Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W and to the SW Gulf on Saturday. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this front. The northerly winds may reach minimal gale force briefly early on Saturday in the far SW Gulf. It is likely that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao. An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 78W eastward. A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern Colombia, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N southward from 74W westward. Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward through Tuesday night. This will allow for moderate to fresh trade winds to diminish slightly, from Tuesday through Friday night, under a rather weak surface pressure gradient. A middle level to upper level trough, that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean into the central Caribbean Sea, will continue to bring scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with possibly gusty winds, to much of the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. NE swell, that is in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will subside through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W cyclonic circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 74W. A surface trough is along 57W/58W from 19N to 29N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 28N between 50W and 65W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 15N to 20N between 58W and 63W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. A frontal boundary is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from South Carolina to Georgia and Alabama. Upper level SW wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through 32N69W to 28N72W to 25N80W. A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds, that are in the waters S of 22N, will diminish to mainly moderate late tonight. NE swell of 7 feet to 9 feet S of 29N E of 70W, will subside through Tuesday. Surface high pressure, that spans the area, will weaken and shift E of the region through Wednesday night. This will allow for gentle to moderate winds across the entire area from Wednesday night through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT