000 AXNT20 KNHC 051205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 15N southward, based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N-12N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 15N southward to Guyana. Scattered showers are seen within 180 nm either side of the wave axis north of 09N. Scattered showers are also near and just east of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 17N southward. The wave continues to move westward through an area of pre- existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Scattered showers extend over the entire eastern Caribbean from the wave axis eastward, enhanced by the upper-level cyclonic flow near and to the east of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W, along 09N/10N to 34W, and then from 08N37W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-11N between 16W-30W. A surface trough is along 45W from 06N- 13N. Disorganized and scattered moderate rainshowers are seen from 07N-15N between 40W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through southwest Louisiana midway between Lake Charles and Lafayette, and extends southwestward through the northwest Gulf of Mexico to 29N95W, inland into southern Texas near 27N97W, bending W and NW to Laredo Texas and Del Rio Texas. A surface trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle southwestward across the northern Gulf to 29N89W to 27N95W. A warm front extends from southern South Carolina to the Big Bend of Florida near 30N84W to 29N86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward between 86W and 94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated rainshowers span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The current Atlantic Ocean to South Carolina to NE Gulf of Mexico warm front will dissipate later today or tonight as central Atlantic high pressure builds westward to the eastern Gulf through Tue. The stationary front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will lift back north as a warm front today. Winds over the area will become mainly southerly and gentle to moderate in speeds today through Thu. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf coast late Thu night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W and to the SW Gulf by Fri night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in Guadeloupe, 0.26 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.07 in Curacao. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Jamaica eastward. Aside from the convection east of 73W, mentioned above, the fair quiet weather covers the area west of 73W and north of 12N. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the SW corner of the area from 12N southward from 76W westward. High pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts eastward through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trades diminish to mainly gentle to moderate speeds Tue and change little through Fri night under a rather weak pressure gradient. A mid to upper-level trough with its axis near 69W will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, over much of the eastern Caribbean through Tue. NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front is over the western Atlantic to the north of the area and extends inland to South Carolina. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 30N and west of 74W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N57W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N northward between 50W and 66W. A surface trough is along 27N55W 23N55W 18N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 23N-27N between 54W-61W are. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 22N- 26N between 44W-51W. A warm front extending from 31N81W to NE Florida will lift north of the area this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwest waters, off the north Florida and Georgia coasts, will continue through early this evening. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds along with long period NE swell are over the southeastern waters, to the northeast of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate winds today, and the swell will subside through tonight. High pressure over the area will weaken through Wed night. East winds will then become gentle to moderate winds S of 27N and gentle southeast to south winds N of 27N through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Hagen