000 AXNT20 KNHC 050539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 15N southward, based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N southward. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related to the ITCZ than to the tropical wave. Isolated moderate from 15N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 17N southward. The wave continues to move through an area of pre- existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 70W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W, along 09N/10N to 34W, and then from 08N37W to 08N50W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 16N southward from 60W eastward. A surface trough is along 43W/44W from 13N southward. Disorganized and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through south central Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. The front becomes stationary along the Texas border with Mexico that is near 100W. The stationary front continues northwestward beyond the Far West of Texas. A surface trough is within 90 nm of the cold front from 27N northward. A warm front is along 27N86W, beyond 30N81W in NE Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N78W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward between 86W and 93W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The current Atlantic Ocean to Florida warm front will move northward, to the NE Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon. The front will dissipate, as central Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. The current stationary front, that extends from south central Louisiana to the lower Texas coast, will move northward as a warm front on Monday. The wind speeds in that area will become mainly southerly, gentle to moderate in speeds from Monday through Thursday. A second cold front will move across the NW Gulf of Mexico coast late on Thursday night. The front will reach from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 26N93W, and into the SW Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this front. It is likely that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in Guadeloupe, 0.26 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.07 in Curacao. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Jamaica eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 21N southward between 56W in the Atlantic Ocean and 74W in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the SW corner of the area from 12N southward from 76W westward. Surface high pressure that is in the central Atlantic Ocean will weaken as it shifts eastward through Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds diminish to mainly gentle to moderate speeds on Tuesday, and change little through Friday night under a rather weak surface pressure gradient. A middle level to upper level trough, that is along 70W, will continue to bring scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, to much of the eastern Caribbean through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front is along 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico, beyond 30N81W in NE Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N78W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the west of the line that passes through 32N73W 26N79W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N56W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N northward between 50W and 66W. A surface trough is along 27N55W 23N55W 18N54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshoewrs are from 23N to 28N between 52W and 62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 21N to 26N between 40W and 50W. The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida warm front will move to the north of the area on Monday. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, that are associated with the front, will continue across the northwest waters through Monday morning. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds, and long period NE swell, are in the southeastern waters. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate winds on Monday, and the swell will subside. Surface high pressure will weaken through Wednesday night. East winds then will become gentle to moderate S of 27N, and gentle southeast to south winds N of 27N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT