000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 15N southward. ITCZ-related disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 30W and 41W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 15N southward. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related to the ITCZ than to the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 17N southward. The wave continues to move through an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 06N25W and 06N34W, and 08N46W. A surface trough is along 11N46W 09N49W 08N52W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 16N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front passes through Ft. Myers Florida to 25N84W. A weakening stationary front extends from 25N84W to 22N91W. Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico from 21N-28N between the west coast of Florida and 94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front at 12Z extends from the Louisiana/Texas border near 31N94W to Houston Texas to south of San Antonio Texas to south of Del Rio Texas. At 15Z, this cold front is analyzed to have entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico from just south of Lake Charles Louisiana to just southeast of Galveston Texas to near Port O'Connor Texas. National Weather Service Doppler radar shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead of this cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 28N and west of 91W offshore of the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. A warm front extending across northern Florida to 27N84W and a surface trough along 27N86W to 23N95W continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms over the northern half of the gulf. Moderate SE winds behind these frontal boundaries will become mainly gentle in speeds tonight as these features continue to weaken. High pressure over the NE CONUS will shift E over the N Atlc waters through Mon allowing for winds to become mainly southerly over much of the basin on Tue. A weak cold front has started to move across the NW waters. The front will reach the SE CONUS on Mon and then it will stall along the gulf coastline through dissipation on Tue. A second cold front will approach the far NW Gulf coast late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.69 in San Juan Puerto Rico, 0.68 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.63 in Guadeloupe, 0.35 in St. Thomas, 0.26 in Curacao, and 0.01 in Kingston in Jamaica. Convection associated with the mid to upper-level low in the northeast Caribbean is described above in the tropical waves section. Elsewhere, isolated showers are still over the Yucatan Channel, but activity in this area has decreased since this morning as the stationary front to the north weakens and lifts northward. Scattered showers are also noted over Belize. The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to eastern Panama near 09N78W to the Pacific coast of western Panama near 08N83W. Isolated to scattered moderate rainshowers are in the southwest Caribbean from 12N southward from 77W westward. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the northwest Caribbean and much of Central America. Relatively quiet weather prevails between 73W-83W north of 12N. Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage tonight as high pressure in the NE CONUS shift over north Atlc waters. By Monday, high pressure over the central Atlantic will dissipate, thus allowing for the trades to diminish in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will dominate across the basin the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of a middle level low, upper level divergence and a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean waters support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and some gusty winds over much of the northeastern Caribbean. This activity is expected to remain quite active through tonight. Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage tonight as high pressure in the NE CONUS shifts over north Atlc waters. By Monday, high pressure over the central Atlantic will dissipate, thus allowing for the trades to diminish in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will dominate across the basin for the remainder of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front passes through 32N74W to the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee Florida near 27N81W and continues into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32W between 73W-80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also in the western Florida Straits west of 81W between western Cuba and the western Florida Keys. A surface trough extends from 19N50W to 25N52W. An elongated upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N52W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 32N between 42W and 64W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 22N to 27N between 48W and 55W. Another surface trough analyzed along 46W from 06N to 13N is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 17N and east of 51W, extending southward and eastward until the ITCZ enhances convection in the area surrounding 10N40W, described above in the ITCZ section. The mid-upper level low near Puerto Rico extends showers and thunderstorms northward from the Caribbean into the Atlantic to 22N, between 60W-72W. The warm front, that currently extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to Florida, will continue to move northward through Monday. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, that are associated with the front, will continue across the NW waters through Monday morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and long period NE swell, are in the SE waters. These winds will diminish, to mainly moderate winds, on Monday, and the swell will subside. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate the waters thereafter. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ah/nr/mt