000 AXNT20 KNHC 041742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34/35W from 02N-15N moving west at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm west and 120 nm east of the wave axis from 07N-10N. The ITCZ is also enhancing convection in the area. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55/56W from 15N southward to Suriname moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers extend 180 nm west and 60 nm east of the wave axis from the coast of South America to 11N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69/70W from 17N southward into western Venezuela moving west around 10 kt. A mid to upper level low centered just south of Puerto Rico is drifting W around 5 kt. Due to the combination of the wave and the mid to upper level low, along with enhanced upper-level divergence in the area, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N-20N between 64W-69W. Flood advisories are in effect for portions of northeastern Puerto Rico due to heavy rainfall in the area. The convection over the northeast and north-central Caribbean, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is expected to remain quite active through tonight. Gusty winds are also expected with this activity through tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 07N26W to 06N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to 07N44W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated strong convection extends to within 210 nm north and 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 18W-32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends to within 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also between the coast of Africa and 18W from 04N-11N. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front passes through Ft. Myers Florida to 25N84W. A weakening stationary front extends from 25N84W to 22N91W. Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico from 21N-28N between the west coast of Florida and 94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front at 12Z extends from the Louisiana/Texas border near 31N94W to Houston Texas to south of San Antonio Texas to south of Del Rio Texas. At 15Z, this cold front is analyzed to have entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico from just south of Lake Charles Louisiana to just southeast of Galveston Texas to near Port O'Connor Texas. National Weather Service Doppler radar shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead of this cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 28N and west of 91W offshore of the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. Moderate E to SE winds to the south of the front in the southeast Gulf of Mexico will become mainly gentle this afternoon as the front weakens and dissipates by this evening. The cold front that has entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico as of 15Z today will slow down and become stationary over the NW Gulf today. The warm front over Florida will lift northward over the NE Gulf. By Monday, the two fronts will combine and become an E-W stationary front draped across the northern Gulf. The front will then lift out of the area Monday evening, allowing winds to be mainly southerly over much of the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds shift to the southwest over the NW Gulf late Mon night and early Tue ahead of the next cold front that will be approaching from the Southern Plains. This front will move across the NW and north-central Gulf waters on Tue. On Wed, the cold front is expected to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N91W and become stationary from there to southern Texas. The front will then lift back to the north as a warm front Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.69 in San Juan Puerto Rico. Convection associated with the mid to upper-level low in the northeast Caribbean is described above in the tropical waves section. Elsewhere, isolated showers are still over the Yucatan Channel, but activity in this area has decreased since this morning as the stationary front to the north weakens and lifts northward. Scattered showers are also noted over Belize. The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to eastern Panama near 09N78W to the Pacific coast of western Panama near 08N83W. Isolated to scattered moderate rainshowers are in the southwest Caribbean from 12N southward from 77W westward. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the northwest Caribbean and much of Central America. Relatively quiet weather prevails between 73W-83W north of 12N. Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage tonight as high pressure in the NE CONUS shifts over north Atlc waters. By Monday, high pressure over the central Atlantic will dissipate, thus allowing for the trades to diminish in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will dominate across the basin for the remainder of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front passes through 32N74W to the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee Florida near 27N81W and continues into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32W between 73W-80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also in the western Florida Straits west of 81W between western Cuba and the western Florida Keys. A surface trough extends from 19N50W to 25N52W. An elongated upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N52W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 32N between 42W and 64W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 22N to 27N between 48W and 55W. Another surface trough analyzed along 46W from 06N to 13N is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 17N and east of 51W, extending southward and eastward until the ITCZ enhances convection in the area surrounding 10N40W, described above in the ITCZ section. The mid-upper level low near Puerto Rico extends showers and thunderstorms northward from the Caribbean into the Atlantic to 22N, between 60W-72W. The warm front over Florida and western Atlantic will continue to lift northward through Mon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the front will continue across the waters well north of the northwest Bahamas through Mon morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds along with long period NE swell are over the waters to the northeast of the northeast Caribbean and Virgin Islands. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate winds on Mon and the swell will subside. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen