000 AXNT20 KNHC 040537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 AM EDT Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 14N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from 15N southward between 50W and 54W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N southward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about equidistant between the SW coast of Puerto Rico and the coast of Venezuela that is along 70W, about 190 nm to 200 nm away from each point. It is not easy to discern rainshowers that are only related to the tropical wave, given the cyclonic wind flow that is around the upper level cyclonic circulation center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N15W, to 11N17W and to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W, to 08N25W and 07N30W, from 07N34W to 07N40W, to 07N52W, and to 07N58W near the coast of Guyana. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The current stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to 23N88W about 75 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving toward 21N92W, and to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere to the SW of the line that passes through 30N85W to the Deep South of Texas at its border with Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend and the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 22N98W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds behind the stationary front will shift to east to southeast late tonight and Sunday, as the front dissipates, and while high pressure in the area slides eastward. Winds become mainly southerly, gentle to moderate in speeds, on Monday in much of the area. These winds shift to the southwest in the NW Gulf of Mexico late, from Monday night into Tuesday, as a weak cold front moves across the NW and north- central waters. Wednesday: the cold front is expected to reach from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 26N91W, and stationary from there to Brownsville Texas. This front will lift northward as a warm front on Thursday, as yet another cold front approaches eastern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.14 in Guadeloupe, and 0.25 in Curacao. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about equidistant between the SW coast of Puerto Rico and the coast of Venezuela that is along 70W, about 190 nm to 200 nm away from each point. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to 21N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the waters from 16N between 60W and 71W. The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, beyond Panama and 07N81W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward. A stationary front remains in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N northward from 83W westward. Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area in the central Atlantic Ocean, will shift eastward through Monday. Strong trade winds along the coast of Colombia will diminish early on Sunday. Strong trade winds will pulse within 60 nm to the south of central Hispaniola, through tonight before diminishing on Monday. The trade winds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday. A stationary front that is across the Yucatan Channel will dissipate gradually through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N73W, across the NW Bahamas, and beyond the Straits of Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N68W to 23N79W at the coast of Cuba. A dissipating stationary front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, along 32N38W to 28N41W to 23N44W. A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 15N to 23N. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N51W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 32N between 40W and 60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N to 27N between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 21N to 27N between 45W and 53W. The current 32N73W-to-the Straits of Florida stationary front will weaken through Sunday. Its remnants will lift northward as a warm front through Sunday night. Scattered rainshowers, that are associated with this boundary and its remnants, will continue to affect the northwestern waters through Monday. A stationary front extending along 19N to the east of 63W will dissipate gradually through Sunday night. Fresh winds with seas to 9 feet are expected in the SE waters through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT