000 AXNT20 KNHC 021747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 29W from 01N-12N, moving west at around 15 kts. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with it. Scattered moderate convection is present over the northern half of the wave between 27W-32W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 03N-12N, moving west at around 15 kts. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 120 nm east of the wave axis and along the coast of Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 06N20W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 09N56W. Aside from the showers related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within 120 nm on the northern side of the boundary. Scattered moderate convection are noted 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 10W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N84W to 19N92W to 18N95W near the coast of Mexico. An upper level trough entering the Southeast Plains is enhancing this feature. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends 210 nm southeast of the front. The front will move slowly southeast across the basin today, with fresh to strong N to NE winds expected west of the front. The front will stall from southern Florida to Cancun, Mexico tonight, then gradually dissipate on Sat as E to SE return flow develops across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered moderate convection is observed over SW Caribbean south of 12N between 73W-84W, to the coast of Nicaragua. This convection is due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward through the weekend and produce fresh tradewinds east of 80W, especially the south-central Caribbean through Saturday evening. These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall and weaken near the Yucatan Channel Sat morning. Trades will diminish Sun and Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic 1026 mb high is centered near 35N55W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and extends to 20N47W. A stationary front continues from 20N47W to 19N63W. Scattered showers are within 130 nm on either side of the front. Scattered showers are noted 70 nm on either side of the boundary between 50W-62W. An eastern Atlantic 1031 mb high is centered near 37N17W producing fair weather. The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. The front is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N74W to southern Florida Sat evening then gradually shift northward on Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres/Formosa