000 AXNT20 KNHC 020002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front... A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico with a pre-frontal squall line. Brief near gale-force winds are possible in the warm section near and over the Tallahassee coastal waters through tonight. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 25W from 01N-12N, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this wave. Scattered showers are noted between 17W-31W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 02N-12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 54W-60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 06N40W to 08N52W, then resumes from 08N56W to 07N58W. Aside from the showers related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within 240 nm north of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information about the cold front and squall line moving across the basin. At this time, the cold front extends from 29N91W 21N97W. The squall line is ahead of the front from 30N86W to 24N94W. An upper level trough across the central plains is enhancing these features. The front will reach from near Cedar Key, FL to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before shifting NW through Sun and lifting N of area Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the SW Caribbean south of 13N between 75W-82W due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The surface pressure gradient will help freshen the tradewinds across the central Caribbean. A western Atlantic high near 33N66W will continue to shift eastward through the weekend and produce fresh to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic 1024 mb high is centered near 33N64W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N43W and extends to 21N50W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the front N of 20N. An eastern Atlantic 1027 mb high is centered near 35N24W producing fair weather. The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Moderate swell associated with post tropical cyclone Oscar over the central Atlc will affect waters E of the Bahamas through Fri. Another cold front will move E of N Florida early Sat preceded by strong S flow Fri. The front is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N74W to Palm Beach, FL Sat evening before shifting NW Sat night through Sun and eventually N of the area Sun night. A N to S trough over the Atlc near 55W Sun afternoon will shift W to 63W by Mon evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA