000 AXNT20 KNHC 011152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front... A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and will continue to move southeast through the basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is within 180 nm ahead of the front. This will continue to enhance convection mainly north of 27N. Brief gale-force winds are possible in the squalls, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft within 300 nm east of the front. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from 01N-12N, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this wave. Scattered showers are within 120 nm on either side of the axis. A tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 02N to 13N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 120 nm on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 11N15W to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 05N34W to 08N50W. Aside from the showers related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within 240 nm north of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above. As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to South Texas near 26N97W. A squall line is distinct ahead of the front with numerous strong convection and near gale force winds. An upper level trough across the central plains and Texas is enhancing the Gulf of Mexico front. The front will reach from near Biloxi, MS to just north of Veracruz, Mexico this evening, from near Cedar Key, FL to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before shifting NW through Sun and lifting N of area Mon. For more information in regards to this feature, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 11N between 78W-81W due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Strengthening high pressure over the western Atlantic through this afternoon will help freshen the tradewinds across the central Caribbean. The high will then continue to shift eastward through the weekend to produce fresh to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic 1023 mb high is centered near 32N68W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 32N44W and extends to 25N50W to 22N60W to 21N70W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Scattered showers are elsewhere north of 26N between 45W-40W. Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N east of 25W through this morning due to Post- Tropical Cyclone Oscar, currently centered north of the area. The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong high pressure to the N will shift eastward along 33N. Moderate swell associated with Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect waters E of the Bahamas today. Another cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Sat with strong southerly flow ahead of it on Friday. The front is expected to weaken from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys on Saturday before shifting northwest through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres/Formosa