000 AXNT20 KNHC 010505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front... A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and continue moving southeast through the basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is developing within 180 nm ahead of the front, and will reach the northwest Gulf waters this morning enhancing convection mainly north of 27N. Brief gale-force winds are possible in the squalls, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 02N-12N, moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this wave. Scattered showers are noted within 105 nm on either side of the axis. A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 90 nm on either side of the wave from 05N to 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 03N23W to 03N31W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within 150 nm north of both boundaries between 29W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic extends across eastern half of the basin. To the west, scattered moderate convection is developing north of 27N and west of 90W. This activity is expected to increase overnight as a squall line develops ahead of the cold front mentioned above in the Special Features section. Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf overnight as return flow sets up across the western half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast by this morning with strong S to SW wind flow ahead of it, and gale- force wind gusts. The front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico this evening, from near Tampa Bay to the central Yucatan Peninsula by Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico on Sat morning before drifting NW through Sun. For more information in regards to this feature, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to north-central Cuba. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Jamaica, Hispaniola and along the Windward Passage in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends to the north of La Mona Passage. In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is south of 11N near NW Colombia and the coast of Panama due to the monsoon trough proximity. Strengthening high pressure over the western Atlantic through this afternoon will help freshen the tradewinds across the central Caribbean. The high will then continue to shift eastward through the weekend to produce fresh to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N49W extends to 23N74W. A surface trough extends from 30N48W to 20N68W. Scattered showers are observed along and within 105 nm to the east of the trough. Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N east of 25W through this morning due to Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar, currently centered north of the area. The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong high pressure to the N will shift eastward along 33N. Moderate swell associated with Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect waters E of the Bahamas today. Another cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Sat with strong southerly flow ahead of it on Friday. The front is expected to weaken from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys on Saturday before shifting northwest through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA