000 AXNT20 KNHC 311203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar is centered near 34.1N 53.6W at 31/0900 UTC or 575 nm ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate convection prevails north of 34N between 52W-57W. Oscar is forecast to move towards the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed through Friday. Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low over the north- central Atlantic Ocean by tonight. Although gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front... A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday and continue moving southeast through the basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from the Texas coast by late tonight into early Thursday. Strong to near-gale winds are expected near this activity, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm near and east of the axis from 06N- 11N extending eastward to 40W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 06N-15N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. The tropical wave is expected to weaken during the next 18 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 12N16W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 06N43W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is within 105 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb high centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast by early Thursday. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast early Thu with strong S to SW wind flow ahead of it, and gale-force wind gusts. The front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening, from near Tampa Bay to the central Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before drifting NW through Sun. Squalls and strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front tonight through Thu. For more information in regards to this feature, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to the windward passage. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated strong convection are south of 10N near NW Colombia and the coast of Panama due to the monsoon trough proximity. Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters and through the NE Caribbean passages this morning then quickly fade this afternoon. High pressure centered along the SE U.S. coast will shift E and across Bermuda through Thu afternoon and act to freshen the trade winds across the central Caribbean. The high will then continue to shift ENE and across the central Atlc through the weekend to produce fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical Atlc and Caribbean east of 80W. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE to the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Sat morning and stall, then drift NW and back into the Gulf late Sat and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N62W to 24N80W. To the east, another cold front extends from 28N60W to 23N69W, then becomes stationary to 19N76W. These fronts are located southwest of Hurricane Oscar. A surface trough extends from 27N53W to 21N65W. Scattered showers are observed from the north coast of Hispaniola to 23N and between 65W-72W. This activity is associated with the surface trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N31N between 46W and 55W. Elsewhere near and within 120 nm SE of the trough axis, scattered showers are present. Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region from 27N14W to 28N22W. No convection is noted with this frontal boundary. Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N east of 25W through early Thursday. Moderate swell associated with the exiting Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlc will affect waters E of the Bahamas through Thu. A cold front will move offshore of northern Florida early Sat with strong southerly flow ahead of it Fri. The front is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys Sat evening before shifting NW Sat night through Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres/ABH