000 AXNT20 KNHC 310003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar is centered near 31.3N 56.6W at 30/2100 UTC, or 420 nm E of Bermuda, moving NNE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm in the southern semicircle. In the southeast quadrant, scattered moderate convection in bands extends outward to 390 nm from the center. Oscar is forecast to move towards the north- northeast with an increase in forward speed through Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front... A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Thu and move eastward to the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from the Texas coast by Wednesday night. Strong to near-gale winds are expected near this activity, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side of the axis from 02N to 11N. A tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 06N-15N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. The tropical wave is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 11N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 07N39W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N45W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is within 105 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 19W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1025 mb high centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast early Thu. The front will reach from western Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning, and from south Florida to Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. A squall line with brief gale- force winds is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front N of 27N. For more information in regards to this cold front, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to northeastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted north of Jamaica between 71W-78W. Further south, scattered moderate convection are south of 13N in the SW Caribbean, and include the coast of NW Colombia and Panama due to the monsoon trough. Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters and through the NE Caribbean passages through Wed morning. A reinforcing Atlantic cold front will stall from W central Cuba to N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning then lift N and dissipate through Thu. High pres north of this front will induce freshening trades across the Caribbean and tropical Atlc waters late Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N67W to 26N80W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N68W then becomes stationary to 21N74W. These fronts are located west of Hurricane Oscar. Refer to the section above for more information. Scattered showers are observed extending from the north coast of Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands between 70W and the eastern tip Cuba. An upper level low centered near 28N46W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 30N between 40W to 45W. Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region from 31N07W to 28N14W to 31N23W. Scattered showers are located within 180 nm of the front to the east of 16W. North of 29N and east of 25W, expect winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8-12 feet, due to a north swell, through early Thursday. A reinforcing cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida tonight will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida this afternoon, from 26N65W to W central Cuba Wed morning, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late Wed before dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect all waters but NW portions through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AH/ERA