000 AXNT20 KNHC 301749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar is centered near 29.7N 57.7W at 1500 UTC, moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm in the southern semicircle. In the southeast quadrant, scattered moderate convection in bands extends outward to 390 nm from the center. Oscar is forecast to move towards the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed through Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Thu and move eastward to the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night. A squall line with strong thunderstorms is likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N. Winds associated with the squall line may briefly reach gale force. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from the Texas coast Wednesday night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 41W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side of the axis from 02N to 11N. A tropical wave that was previously located along 57W has been relocated to 54/55W from 15N southward to near the border of Guyana and Suriname. Total precipitable water imagery, 700 mb model diagnostics and infrared satellite loops all indicate that the wave is located along 54/55W. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis between 09N to 13N between 50W to 57W. The tropical wave is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed over the continent of Africa east of 16W. The ITCZ extends from 11N16W to 06N38W, then resumes from 05N43W to the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 300 nm south of the ITCZ and 240 nm north of the ITCZ between the coast of Africa and 37W. In addition, scattered showers are seen from 14N-19N between the coast of Africa and 40W. This activity is due to westerly mid to upper-level winds transporting enhanced moisture over the region. GULF OF MEXICO... A tail end of a cold front extends over Central Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Fort Myers to 28N85W. There is no significant convection associated with this front. In the Bay of Campeche, most of the isolated showers from earlier this morning have dissipated. A 1025 mb high is centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast early Thu. The front will reach from western Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning, and from south Florida to Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. A squall line with brief gale-force winds is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front N of 27N. For more information in regards to this cold front, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 20N82W over the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from the north coast of Honduras to 18N between 86W and the coast of Belize. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate convection are south of 13N in the SW Caribbean, and include the coast of NW Colombia and Panama. The stationary front over the northwest Caribbean is expected to dissipate later today. Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters and through the NE Caribbean passages through Wed morning. A reinforcing Atlantic cold front will stall from W central Cuba to N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning then lift N and dissipate through Thu. High pres north of this front will induce freshening trades across the Caribbean and tropical Atlc waters late Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area 32N68W and extends to West Palm Beach Florida. Low to mid level broken cloud cover is observed along to within 60 nm ahead of the front east of 75W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N65W to the southeast Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are observed extending from the north coast of Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands between 70W and the eastern tip Cuba. An upper level low centered near 28N46W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 30N between 40W to 45W. Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region from 32N11W to 31N15W to 32N22W to 36N28W. Scattered showers are located within 180 nm of the front to the east of 16W. North of 29N and east of 25W, expect winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8-12 feet, due to a north swell, through early Thursday. A reinforcing cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida tonight will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida this afternoon, from 26N65W to W central Cuba Wed morning, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late Wed before dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect all waters but NW portions through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMT/ABH