000 AXNT20 KNHC 300555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar centered near 27.4N 58.3W at 0300 UTC, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 200 nm east of the center. Oscar is forecast to accelerate north- northeastward later today ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, then move rapidly across the northern central Atlantic. PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 38W from 01N to 11N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm on either side of the axis from 05N to 12N. A tropical wave is along 55W S of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed over the continent of Africa east of 16W. The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 06N37W, then resumes from 06N38W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 19W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay of Campeche S of 25N west of 91W. Mostly fair weather is over the rest of the Gulf. Mostly zonal flow is noted at upper levels. High pressure will gradually shift into the SE U.S. and maintain benign marine weather through this afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves off the Texas coast Wed night. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to Tuxpan Mexico Thu night, and from Tampa Florida to NW Yucatan by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is south of 20N in the Gulf of Honduras. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate convection are south of 12N in the SW Caribbean, and include the coast of NW Colombia. Isolated trade wind showers are across the remainder of the Caribbean. The stationary front will dissipate later today. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades will persist over the western Caribbean today. Expect fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to the central Caribbean waters through Fri as high pressure builds into the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 32N65W across the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the front. A dry cold front moving off northern Florida will reach from Bermuda to southern Florida this afternoon, stall and weaken from 22N65W to the Windward Passage on Wed, then dissipate by Thu. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar east of 60W will impact the area east of 70W and north of 22N early through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell